斯伦贝谢预计2023年海上勘探支出将增长20%以上

  据钻机地带6月22日报道，根据油田技术公司斯伦贝谢（SLB）的数据显示，2023年海上油气勘探支出将增长20%以上。

SLB首席执行官Olivier Le Peuch在摩根大通能源、电力&可再生能源大会上发表演讲时表示，“从浅水到深水的海上勘探正在经历广泛的复苏”。

Le Peuch引用SLB网站上的一份报告称，海上业务正在经历复兴，其广度和预期的持久性都很强。在能源安全、区域化和北美页岩供应原则的推动下，世界各地的运营商都在寻求加快发现以更新供应，加快开发周期，提高海上资产的生产率。

Le Peuch继续说道，如今，海上业务是全球增长最快的市场，这得益于长周期开发、产能扩张、棕地（曾经用于开发建造，但是又被遗弃的荒地）和新领域勘探和评估的回归，以及天然气作为能源安全长期燃料的重要性。

SLB表示，目前有超过400台活跃的海上钻机，预计2023年将以“最低15%”的速度增长，2024年“进一步实现两位数增长”。

SLB指出，2024年之后的前景将仍然强劲。该公司预计，2022年至2025年间，全球30多个国家的最终投资决策（FID）中投入海上勘探的将超过5000亿美元，其中超过2000亿美元用于深水勘探。据报告称，总之，与2016年至2019年相比，这一时期的预期海上投资将增长90%。

Le Peuch表示，在非洲等成熟盆地，勘探活动的加速，圭亚那、巴西和中东正在扩大大型油气开发项目，勘探和评估活动的回归尤其是在纳米比亚、坦桑尼亚、哥伦比亚、印度和东地中海等新的边境省份，支持了海上业务的复苏。

Le Peuch表示，SLB认为“除了几个国家通过开放政策授予租约外，全球还有65轮租赁活动”。

此外，据介绍，全球2022年授予了348个海底采油树，这是自2013年以来最多的，2023年将授予约300个。

Le Peuch表示，在2022年至2025年期间计划的5000亿美元FID中，约85%的FID在大宗商品价格低于50美元的情况下是可行的，从而使它们与短期价格波动脱钩。在过去的十年中，通过技术和数字化技术提高效率，降低了海上开发的成本，缩短了周期时间，显著提高了项目的经济性。这降低了盈亏平衡，使(勘探和生产)运营商有信心投资这些长周期项目。

此外，Le Peuch指出，随着减排优先事项开始影响全球上游地区的投资决策，海上作业的低碳强度将继续提升其价值主张。

Le Peuch总结道，“我们很高兴这些市场动态已经对我们的业务产生了影响。海上业务约占我们国际收入的50%，随着我们了解到大量海上业务，海上业务短期需求将持续波动及周期的持久性将增强，海上业务有望继续增长”。

据该公司网站介绍，总部位于休斯敦的SLB拥有斯伦贝谢传统品牌，以能源创新为目标，在100多个国家设有分支机构。2023年第一季度，该公司报告了归属于SLB的净收入9.34亿美元，同比增长83%，同期收入77亿美元，同比增长30%。

郝芬 译自 钻机地带 网站

原文如下：

2023 Offshore Exploration Spending to Rise Over 20 Percent: SLB

Offshore oil and gas exploration spending will rise by more than 20 percent in 2023, according to oilfield technology company SLB.

SLB CEO Olivier Le Peuch said in a presentation at the J.P. Morgan Energy, Power & Renewables Conference offshore exploration “from shallow to deepwater, is experiencing a broad resurgence”.

“Offshore is experiencing a renaissance, with significant breadth and anticipated durability”, Le Peuch said, as quoted in a transcript on the SLB website. “Driven by the imperative of energy security, regionalization, and North American shale supply discipline, operators across the world are looking to hasten discovery to renew supply, accelerate development cycle times, and increase the productivity of their offshore assets.”

“Today, offshore is the fastest growing market globally driven by long-cycle developments, production capacity expansions, the return of exploration and appraisal in brownfields, and new frontiers, and the criticality of gas as a long-term fuel for energy security”, Le Peuch continued.

SLB said there are currently over 400 active offshore rigs, predicting an increase in the “low to mid-teens” in 2023 and “further double-digit growth” in 2024.

The outlook beyond 2024 will continue to be strong, SLB noted. Between 2022 and 2025, the company projects more than $500 billion in global final investment decisions (FIDs) across over 30 countries, with more than $200 billion attributable to deepwater exploration. In total, the expected offshore investment in this period will see a 90 percent jump compared to the period of 2016 to 2019, the presentation said.

The resurgence in offshore is supported by infill and tie-back activity accelerating in mature basins such as in Africa; large oil and gas development projects being scaled up in Guyana, Brazil, and the Middle East; and return of exploration and appraisal, notably in new frontier offshore provinces such as Namibia, Tanzania, Colombia, India, and East Mediterranean, Le Peuch said.

SLB sees “a long tail of activity with 65 lease rounds concluding globally, in addition to several countries awarding leases through open door policies”, Le Peuch said.

Further, 348 subsea trees were awarded in 2022, the most since 2013, and there will be approximately 300 awarded in 2023, according to the presentation.

“Of the $500 billion in FIDs planned between 2022 to 2025, approximately 85 [percent] are viable at commodity prices below $50, decoupling them from short-term price volatility”, Le Peuch said. Over the last decade, advances in efficiency through technology and digital have resulted in lower costs and reduced cycle times in offshore developments, significantly improving project economics, he said. “This has resulted in lower break-evens and has given [exploration and production] operators the confidence to invest in these long-cycle projects.”

Further, as emission reduction priorities begin to impact investment decisions in the upstream landscape globally, the lower carbon intensity of offshore operations will continue to add to its value proposition, Le Peuch noted.

“We are excited about how these market dynamics are already impacting our business”, Le Peuch concluded. “Offshore represents approximately 50% of our international revenue, and it is primed to grow as we have visibility into a substantial baseload of offshore activity that will outlast near-term demand volatility and reinforce the durability of the cycle.”

Houston-based SLB, which houses the legacy Schlumberger brand, targets energy innovation and has locations in more than 100 countries, according to the company website. In the first quarter of 2023, the company reported net income attributable to SLB of $934 million, an increase of 83 percent year over year, and revenue of $7.7 billion in the same period, an increase of 30 percent year over year.