惠誉解决方案公司发布2050年油气行业大趋势

据美国钻井地带网站6月23日报道，在发给钻机地带网站的一份新报告中，惠誉解决方案公司BMI的分析师概述了到2050年油气行业的几大趋势。

分析师们在报告中强调，石油需求减少是大趋势之一，并补充称，全球油气需求将面临越来越大的压力，随着能源转型加速迫使行业整合，也在促进能源效率的提高和燃料的广泛转换。

分析师在报告中指出，迄今为止，需求减少的大部分集中在公路运输和电力等较容易减少的行业，而且主要集中在成熟市场。

他们补充道，然而，如果要实现《巴黎协定》的目标，全球所有能源部门和市场都需要更深入的脱碳战略。

BMI分析师在报告中指出，根据他们的数据，成熟市场的石油消费将从2025年开始永久性下降，而新兴市场(EM)的峰值将至少滞后10年，考虑到在满足快速增长消费的同时，要实现能源结构的有意义转变面临更大的困难。

分析师在报告中表示，潜在能源结构的差异以及广泛变化的经济、人口和政策前景将导致不同地区在随后的需求下跌速度不同，市场在不同的时间段达到峰值。

他们补充道，在未来几十年内，非洲、中东和中东欧的需求将最持久，而西欧、北美和亚洲的需求将下降最快。

分析师在报告中表示，不同燃料组合的需求轨迹也会有所不同。

他们表示，随着燃料效率要求的提高和电动汽车等替代品的普及，道路运输燃料最容易受到能源转型的影响，而航空和海洋燃料虽然更难替代，但随着替代品在未来十年开始进入市场，到2050年燃料需求也将遭受巨大损失。

他们补充道，相比之下，那些为石化和重工业部门服务的燃料将持续更长的时间，因为获得可行替代品的途径并不成熟。

石油供应

报告中概述的另一个大趋势是，随着全球政策导向和需求改变企业战略，石油供应将继续下降。

分析师在报告中表示，鉴于长期需求下降的预期，碳氢化合物长期供应前景疲软，这将导致石油和天然气生产商在发展成为综合能源公司时，对上游行业的投资持续不足。

他们补充道，这种需求下降的新趋势将导致上游投资减少，以通过限制市场供应的形式来维持油价和利润。

这一转变主要原因是上游公司应对包括油气在内高碳排放行业的减排要求所实施的战略转变，以及长期需求前景减弱所推动，这就抑制了更高风险的长期投资，尤其是那些前期开发成本高的投资。

BMI分析师在报告中指出，越来越严格的环境法规和政府对化石燃料行业强硬立场将继续威胁未来的绿地石油和天然气项目，并加速从碳氢化合物投资转向低碳。

分析师表示，“从财务角度来看，我们注意到最近的趋势是，能源公司被征收暴利税，监管不断加强，从而抑制了能源公司对未来勘探和生产的大量投入”。并补充道，“我们预计勘探和生产公司将以减少上游和下游项目的增长为代价，继续提高用于低碳努力(减少排放，碳信用额度抵消)资本支出分配”。

许多生产商的投资不足将导致生产增长放缓，尤其是对于在上游项目组合中面临日益增加成熟油田份额的生产商来说。

“我们强调，美国多产的页岩资产基础将趋于成熟，随着对新增长的投资放缓，产量将趋于平稳或下降。”

欧佩克的作用

欧佩克的再次崛起是报告中提到的另一个大趋势。

BMI分析师在报告中表示，从化石燃料向低排放替代品过渡的承诺将见证欧佩克在全球市场中力量的转变和演变。

随着需求趋势下降，供应竞争程度促使人们关注效率、成本和排放强度，石油生产商将变得更加集中。

沙特阿拉伯已经加倍努力成为“最后的生产国”，其目标是到2027年将原油产能从目前的每天1200万桶提高到每天1300万桶，并且到2030年将天然气产量提高50%。

BMI分析师在报告中表示，许多欧佩克和欧佩克+生产国已经拥有低成本的业务，随之而来的是欧佩克在石油供应中的份额将增长。

分析师们强调，再加上对石油需求下降的预期，虽然这将导致总市场份额的增加，但“蛋糕”将变小。

展望欧佩克未来的政策，BMI分析师指出，欧佩克将推进其战略从短期价格监管转向长期政策影响。

分析人士表示，这些政策驱动的行动预计将主要由目前控制大部分石油生产的海湾合作委员会主要国家制定。

他们补充称，“我们确实预计一些产油国紧张局势将持续下去，国家利益将超过欧佩克的凝聚力，但这只会发生在非核心产油国身上。因此，该组织的构成可能会继续发生变化，尽管最终控制权将掌握在目前的顶级生产商手中”。

分析人士还表示，该组织的重点将是更广泛地转向气候适应和减排。

他们称，这种对气候变化技术解决方案（碳捕获、蓝氢/氨等）的重视增加了碳排放目标无法实现的风险，因为有限的资金和时间被转移到石油和天然气保护工作上。

英国石油公司（bp）展望

早在今年1月，英国石油公司就发布了《bp2023年能源展望》，该公司表示，该展望考虑了最近全球能源供应的中断以及对全球价格的相关影响，并探讨了这将如何影响到2050年的能源转型。

在其网站上专门的能源展望部分，该公司概述了该报告的几个“核心理念”。它强调石油需求的下降，并且“随着车辆效率的提高和道路车辆电气化的加速，道路运输的使用量下降”。

尽管如此，未来的15到20年，石油仍将继续在全球能源系统中发挥重要作用。

概述额度另一个核心理念是，“在风电和太阳能发电日益占主导地位的领导下”，全球电力系统将脱碳。

该公司指出，风电和太阳能发电占据了发电增长的全部或大部分份额并得益于持续的成本竞争力，这些高份额的可变能源整合到电力系统中的能力将不断增强。风能和太阳能的增长需要大幅加快融资和新产能建设。

概述中还有一个核心理念是，许多国家政府对能源转型的支持力度有所加大。但脱碳挑战的规模表明，全球需要更多的支持，包括加快低碳能源和基础设施的许可和政策批准。

郝芬 译自 钻机地带 网站

原文如下：

Oil and Gas Megatrends to 2050

In a new report sent to Rigzone, analysts at BMI, a Fitch Solutions company, have outlined several megatrends for the oil and gas sector out to 2050.

The waning of oil demand is one of those megatrends, the analysts highlighted in the report, adding that global oil and gas demand will come under increasing pressure, “forcing industry consolidation as the energy transition accelerates, fostering rising energy efficiency and widespread fuel switching”.

“To date, the bulk of demand destruction has been concentrated in easier to abate industries, such as the road transport and power sectors, and has largely accrued in developed markets (DMs),” the analysts stated in the report.

“However, if the Paris Agreement goals are to be met, deeper decarbonization strategies will be required across all sectors and markets globally,” they added.

In the report, the BMI analysts noted that, according to their data, DM oil consumption will fall into permanent decline from 2025, while the emerging market (EM) peak will lag by at least a decade, “given the greater difficulties faced in meaningfully shifting the energy mix, while meeting rapidly growing consumption”.

“Differences in the underlying energy mix and widely varying economic, demographic, and policy outlooks will see the pace of subsequent declines vary across different regions with markets peaking at varying timeframes,” the analysts stated in the report.

“Over a multi-decade horizon, demand will be most durable in Africa, the Middle East and Central and Eastern Europe, while Western Europe and North America and developed Asia will see the fastest declines,” they added.

Demand trajectories will also vary across the fuel basket, the analysts said in the report.

“Road transport fuels are most vulnerable to the energy transition as fuel efficiency mandates rise and alternatives such as EVs ramp up adoption, while aviation and marine fuels, although harder to replace, will also suffer steep losses up to 2050 as alternatives begin to enter the marketplace next decade,” they said.

“In contrast, those fuels serving the petrochemicals and heavy industrial sectors will be longer lasting as the pathways to viable alternatives is least developed,” they added.

Oil Supply

Another megatrend outlined in the report is that oil supply will track lower as global policy and demand shifts corporate strategy.

“The long-term hydrocarbon supply outlook is weak given the expectation for declining demand long term, which will result in persistent under investment in the upstream sector by oil and gas producers as they evolve into integrated energy companies,” the analysts stated in the report.

“This emerging dynamic of lower demand will see upstream investment pared back to preserve oil prices and sustain profits by limiting market supply,” they added.

“This transition is mainly driven by the shift in strategies among upstream companies as they respond to reduction requirements for high carbon emitting industries, including oil and gas, and the weakening long-term demand outlook which disincentivizes more risky, long-term investments, especially those with high upfront development costs,” they continued.

The BMI analysts noted in the report that increasingly stringent environmental regulations and hardening of government positions against the fossil fuel sector will continue to threaten future greenfield oil and gas projects and accelerate the shift away from hydrocarbon investments.

“From a financial perspective, we note the recent trend for the targeting of energy companies with windfall taxes and rising regulations, thereby disincentivizing energy companies from committing heavily to future exploration and production,” the analysts said.

“We expect that exploration and production companies will continue raising capital expenditure allocations towards low carbon efforts (mitigation of emissions, carbon credits offsets) at the cost of growth in upstream and downstream projects,” they added.

“Under-investment among a number of producers will lead to decelerating production growth, especially among producers facing an increasing share of maturing fields in their upstream project portfolio,” they continued.

“We highlight that the U.S. will see some maturing of its prolific shale asset base and will see output plateauing or declining amid slowing investment in new growth,” the analysts went on to state.

The Role of OPEC

The rise of OPEC was another megatrend flagged in the report.

“The commitment to transition away from fossil fuels to low-emission alternatives will see OPEC’s global market power shift and evolve,” the BMI analysts said in the report.

“Oil producers will become more concentrated as demand trends downward and the degree of competition in supply prompts a focus on efficiency, costs, and emissions intensity,” they added.

“Saudi Arabia has doubled down on efforts to become ‘the last producer standing’ with its goal of raising crude production capacity to 13 million barrels per day by 2027, up from its current limit of 12 million barrels per day, as well as increasing natural gas production by 50 percent by 2030,” they continued.

In the report, the BMI analysts stated that many OPEC and OPEC+ producers already possess low-cost operations and added that “it follows that OPEC’s share of oil supply is set to grow”.

“Coupled with our expectations for oil demand to fall, while this would result in a larger share of the market in total, it would be a smaller pie,” the analysts highlighted.

Looking at future policy from the group, the BMI analysts noted that OPEC will evolve its strategy to move away from short-term price regulation to long-term policy impacts.

“These policy driven actions are expected to be largely set by the key Gulf Cooperation Council countries currently controlling the bulk of oil production,” the analysts said.

“We do expect some group tensions to persist and national interests to outweigh OPEC cohesion but this is only expected from the non-core producers,” they added.

“As a result, the group’s make-up is likely to continue to shift although ultimately control will rest with the current top producers,” they continued.

The analysts also stated that the focus of the group will see a wider move towards climate adaptation and emissions mitigation over a wholesale replacement of fossil fuels.

“This emphasis on technical solutions to climate change (carbon capture, blue hydrogen/ammonia, among others) raises the risk that emissions targets will be missed as limited capital and time is diverted to pursue these oil and gas preserving endeavors,” they said.

BP Outlook

Back in January this year, BP published its 2023 Energy Outlook, which the company said considers the recent disruption to global energy supplies and associated impacts on global prices and explores how this could affect the energy transition out to 2050.

In a dedicated energy outlook segment on its website, BP outlines several “core beliefs” of the report. These include the decline of oil demand over the outlook, “driven by falling use in road transport as the efficiency of the vehicle fleet improves and the electrification of road vehicles accelerates”, BP highlights.

Even so, oil continues to play a major role in the global energy system for the next 15-20 years, BP’s site states.

Another core belief is that the global power system decarbonizes, “led by the increasing dominance of wind and solar power”, BP outlines.

“Wind and solar account for all or most of the growth in power generation, aided by continuing cost competitiveness and an increasing ability to integrate high proportions of these variable power sources into power systems,” BP’s site notes.

“The growth in wind and solar requires a significant acceleration in the financing and building of new capacity,” it adds.

Another core belief is that government support for the energy transition has increased in a number of countries, according to BP.

“But the scale of the decarbonization challenge suggests greater support is required globally, including policies to facilitate quicker permitting and approval of low-carbon energy and infrastructure,” BP states on its site.