油价将走向何方? 这个问题很复杂

全球原油市场供应状况趋紧即将到来

沙特阿拉伯额外日减100万桶原油产量将在7月份收紧实物石油市场

全球宏观经济逆风使油价回落

据油价网2023年6月25日报道，美国页岩远景区的石油和天然气钻井作业正在放缓，在用钻机数量连续数周下降，美国达拉斯联邦储备银行的最新能源调查结果也显示，美国油气钻探活动正在减弱。

有人说，这将导致供应萎缩，从而推高价格。其他人在观察需求走向时仍持谨慎态度，他们怀疑需求将继续疲软，从而使价格维持在当前水平：“如今在美国的生产企业很难推进工作。”

上述引文是达拉斯联邦储备银行调查的一位受访者的评论的一部分。同一位受访者总结了美国油气行业目前面临的主要挑战：“国家监管环境正在恶化。仅仅是做生意的成本就在不断增加。保险公司正在退出这个行业。”

事实上，如今从事生产业务似乎很困难，而那些从事生产业务的人正在采取措施确保他们继续经营下去。产量增长不在首要任务之列，这一点已经得到了坚定确认。但不仅限于产量增长，钻井公司实际上在限制钻井活动。

路透社援引依欧格资源公司首席运营官Lloyd Helms在最近由摩根大通主办的行业活动中所言报道说，“短期内我们不会看到市场进一步收紧。我们对油价走势的看法更具建设性”。

根据贝克休斯公司的每周报告，美国的石油和天然气钻探活动已经连续7周下降。路透社指出，这是自去年4月以来的最低水平。

当然，当钻井活动收紧时，供应预计也将趋紧，这应该会对价格产生积极影响。除非需求也疲软，否则情况会比平时更加复杂。

“沙特最近计划在7月份每天削减100万桶原油产量以及5月份类似的减产均未能提振油价。在我（本文作者）看来，这是全球经济衰退需求疲软的信号”，达拉斯联邦储备银行能源调查中的一位受访者如是表示。

他补充称，“美国今年经济增长率预计将约为1.2%，这表明美国国内需求放缓，而国内石油日产量预计到年底将增加约60万桶至1275万桶。这些预期表明，WTI价格将继续承压”。

当然，亚洲需求是人们关注的焦点，但在今年余下的时间里，亚洲需求将走向何方根本就不确定，尽管今年迄今为止，亚洲大国需求一直在稳步上升，并屡创新高。这似乎不足以让能源行业高管相信，油价的前景会更加光明。

价格期货集团（Price Futures Group）的一名分析师对路透社表示：“我们被锁定在一个交易区间内，但对经济的担忧拖累了价格。”

达拉斯联邦储备银行的一名受访者在总结形势时表示：“为了将石油产量维持在当前水平，我们在全球范围内的投资仍然不足，而需求继续增加，亚洲需求也在上升。”

“这些基本面因素对油价是有益的。然而，在通货膨胀和利率如何缓和、美国经济是否陷入衰退以及衰退持续多久方面，央行是主要的参与者。这些都是笼罩在大宗商品市场和资本市场上的不确定性。”

美国也存在监管环境问题，联邦政府公开支持替代能源，以相当明确的方式将其置于石油和天然气之上。这进一步削弱了未来生产更多石油和天然气的计划。

总而言之，鉴于石油输出国组织最近的减产和美国钻井商的谨慎，石油供应形势应该令人担忧。然而，由于各国央行货币政策引发的持续衰退担忧，需求状况也令人担忧。当这种情况继续下去的时候，油价将很可能保持区间波动。

李峻 译自 油价网

原文如下：

Where Are Oil Prices Going? It's Complicated

·     Tighter supply conditions are on the horizon in global crude markets.

·     The 1 million bpd extra production cut from Saudi Arabia is set to tighten physical oil markets in July.

·     Global macro-economic headwinds keep oil prices back.

Oil and gas drilling in the U.S. shale patch is slowing down. Rig counts have been falling for weeks, and the latest Dallas Fed Energy Survey also showed that activity is weakening.

Some say this would lead to supply shrinkage, which would push prices higher. Others remain cautious as they watch where demand is going, suspecting it will remain weak, keeping prices where they are. "It is hard to be in the production business these days."

The above quote is part of a comment made by a respondent to the Dallas Fed survey. That same respondent summed up the main challenges that the U.S. oil and gas industry is facing right now as follows: "The state regulatory environment is worsening. Costs continue to increase just to do business. Insurance companies are leaving the business."

Indeed, it seems tough to be in the production business these days, and those who are in the business nevertheless are taking measures to ensure they stay in business. That production growth is not among the top priorities has already become firmly established. But it's not only production growth. Drillers are actually curbing drilling activity.

"We're a short term away from seeing the market tighten even further. We are more constructive on where oil prices could go." This is what the chief operating officer of EOG Resources, Lloyd Helms, said at a recent industry event hosted by JP Morgan, as quoted by Reuters.

Oil and gas drilling activity in the United States has been in decline for seven weeks in a row, according to the weekly reports of Baker Hughes. Reuters notes this is the lowest since April 2022.

Naturally, when drilling activity tightens, it is reasonable to expect tighter supply as well, which should affect prices in a positive way. Unless demand is weak as well, which makes the situation more complicated than usual.

"Saudi Arabia's recent production cut of 1 million barrels per day planned for July and the similar cut in May have failed to lift oil prices. In my view this is signaling weak worldwide recessionary demand," one of the Dallas Fed Energy Survey respondents said.

He added that "U.S. expected growth this year of around 1.2 percent signals slow domestic demand, on top of an expected daily domestic production increase of about 600,000 barrels at year end to 12.75 million barrels per day. These expectations point to continued pressure on West Texas Intermediate posted prices."

Asian demand is in focus, of course, but there is no certainty where it will go at all for the remainder of the year, even though it has been rising steadily and breaking records so far this year. It appears this is insufficient to convince energy executives that there are brighter days ahead for oil prices.

It's not only the Fed, either. On Thursday this week, oil prices slumped by 4% after the Bank of England hiked rates by 50 basis points, which was higher than expected. The surprising size of the hike ignited immediate concern about fuel demand in the country and the outlook for the economy as a whole since this is the 13th rate hike in a row that the BoE is implementing.

"We're locked in a trading range but prices are held back by the concerns about the economy, the larger economy," an analyst from Price Futures Group told Reuters.

"We are still globally underinvesting to keep oil production at current levels, while demand continues to increase, with upside in Asia," one Dallas Fed survey respondent said, summing the situation up.

There is also the regulatory environment issue in the United States, with a federal government that is openly backing alternative energy sources, prioritizing them over oil and gas in a pretty categorical way. This further saps any plans to produce more oil and gas in the future.

All in all, then, the supply situation in oil should be of concern, with OPEC's latest cuts and U.S. drillers' caution. Yet the demand situation is also concerning because of the persistent recession fears fuelled by central banks' monetary policies. While this state of affairs continues, oil prices will likely remain range-bound.