据今日石油网站2023年6月19日报道，根据国际能源署(IEA)的最新预测，到2028年前，拉丁美洲的原油产量将激增25%。圭亚那和巴西是引领这一产量激增的两个国家。
IEA在其6月份对2028年的预测中指出：“欧佩克+联盟以外的产油国将主导全球供应能力中期增长的计划，预计到2028年前，美国、巴西和圭亚那的原油日产量将增加510万桶。”
根据欧佩克1月份的月度石油市场报告，圭亚那的原油产量预计将每天大幅增加约9万桶。这一产量激增将推动圭亚那2023年的原油产量比埃克森美孚公司运营项目2022年生产的1.01亿桶多3200万桶。
欧佩克已将圭亚那确定为在推动供应增长方面发挥重要作用的关键非欧佩克生产国之一。这份名单上的其他国家包括美国、挪威、巴西、加拿大、哈萨克斯坦、墨西哥等。这七个国家预计将为全球原油产量日增大约154万桶。
未来几年圭亚那近海预计将有几个新开发项目，这将进一步提高原油产量。一个名为帕亚拉的新项目也有望在今年年内获得第一批原油。
圭亚那丽莎第一阶段和第二阶段开发项目在今年开始原油生产，原油日产量分别为14万桶和22万桶。埃克森美孚公司计划将第二阶段开发项目的原油日产能优化至25万桶。
在巴西，巴西国家石油公司表示，其今年第一季度的平均石油、天然气液体和天然气日产量达到了268万桶油当量。这比上一季度增长了1.1%，主要是由于Itapu油田P-71船的产量增加、坎波斯盆地8口新井的投产以及平台生产效率的提高。随着巴西国家石油公司在其盐下油田增加18艘生产船的计划的实施，预计这一原油产量数字将会进一步增加。
根据IEA《2023年石油中期市场报告》，从2022年到2028年，全球原油日需求量预计将增长6%达到1.057亿桶。这一增长将受到石化和航空油料行业强劲需求的推动。然而，尽管总体上有所增长，但全球原油日需求预计增长将从今年的240万桶大幅下降至2028年的40万桶，这表明全球原油需求峰值即将到来。
李峻 译自 今日石油 网站
原文如下：
Latin America’s oil and gas production set for 25% surge by 2028
New projections by the International Energy Agency (IEA) see Latin America’s oil production increasing by 25% by 2028. Guyana and Brazil are among those leading this growth.
“Oil-producing countries outside the OPEC+ alliance dominate plans for increasing global supply capacity in the medium term, with an expected rise of 5.1 million barrels per day by 2028 led by the United States, Brazil and Guyana,” the IEA outlined in its June Forecast to 2028.
According to the January monthly oil market report from OPEC, Guyana is expected to significantly increase its crude oil production by approximately 90,000 barrels per day (bpd). This surge in output would propel Guyana’s 2023 production to 32 million barrels more than the 101 million barrels produced in 2022 by ExxonMobil-operated projects.
OPEC has identified Guyana as one of the key non-OPEC producers that will play a vital role in driving supply growth. The other countries on this list include the United States, Norway, Brazil, Canada, Kazakhstan, Mexico etc. Collectively, these seven nations are projected to add around 1.54 million bpd to global oil production.
Several developments are expected offshore Guyana in coming years which will further boost crude oil production. A new project called Payara is also expected to achieve first oil this year.
The Liza Phases 1 and 2 developments started the year with production at 140,000 bpd and 220,000 bpd respectively. Exxon plans to optimise Phase 2 to about 250,000 bpd.
Over in Brazil, Petrobras said that its average oil, natural gas liquids (NGL), and natural gas production reached 2.68 million barrels of oil equivalent per day (MMboed) in the first quarter of 2023. This represents a 1.1% increase from the previous quarter, mainly due to production ramp-up of the P-71 vessel in Itapu field and the start-up of eight new wells in Campos Basin and higher production efficiencies in the platforms. And this is only expected to increase as Petrobras executes its plan to add 18 production vessels in its pre-salt fields.
According to the IEA’s Oil 2023 medium-term market report, global oil demand is projected to increase by 6% from 2022 to 2028, reaching 105.7 million barrels per day (mb/d). This growth will be driven by strong demand from the petrochemical and aviation sectors. However, despite this overall increase, annual demand growth is anticipated to decline significantly from 2.4 mb/d this year to only 0.4 mb/d in 2028, indicating that a peak in demand is on the horizon.
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