美国天然气期货价格上涨2%

据天然气加工新闻网6月30日报道，美国天然气期货周五上涨约2%，原因包括输送到液化天然气出口工厂的天然气量增加、欧洲天然气价格上涨以及美国天气预报称，比正常情况下更热的天气将持续到7月中旬，尤其是在得克萨斯州。

据得克萨斯州电网运营商得州电力可靠性委员会(ERCOT)称，由于热浪继续侵袭该州，该州的用电量在当周周二创下历史新高后仍然居高不下。

极端高温会增加燃气发电机为空调发电而燃烧的电量，尤其是在大部分电力来自燃气发电厂的得克萨斯州。根据联邦能源数据，2022年，该州约49%的电力来自燃气发电厂，其余大部分来自风能（22%）、煤炭（16%）、核能（8%）和太阳能（4%）。

美国东部时间当天上午10时44分（格林尼治标准时间14时44分），纽约商品交易所8月交货的即月天然气期货上涨5.4美分，涨幅2.0%，至每百万英热单位2.755美元。

本周，美国原油期货合约上涨约1%，有望实现自2022年4月以来的首次连续四周上涨。

本月，美国原油期货合约在5月份下跌约6%后上涨了约21%。

在第一季度下跌了50%之后，本季度美国天然气合约上涨了约24%。

在欧洲，荷兰(TTF)基准天然气价格上涨约11%，达到一周来的最高点，约为每百万英热单位12美元。

供求关系

据数据提供商Refinitiv表示，到目前为止，美国本土48个州的日均天然气产量从5月份的1025亿立方英尺降至6月份的1015亿立方英尺。

然而，按日计算，过去三天的日产量增加18亿桶，周五达到1020亿桶/日的两周高点。

据气象学家预测，至少在7月15日之前，美国本土48个州的天气仍将比正常情况更热。

根据Refinitiv预测，随着天气变热，包括出口在内的美国天然气需求将从本周的979亿立方英尺/日上升至下周的1042亿立方英尺/日，两周后随着气温略有缓和，需求将下降至1036亿立方英尺/日。本周和下周的预测与Refinitiv周四的预测相似。

6月迄今为止，美国对墨西哥的天然气日均出口量从5月的62亿立方英尺上升至66亿立方英尺；相比之下，2021年6月的月度最高数据为68亿立方英尺。

到目前为止，美国七大液化天然气出口工厂的天然气流量从5月份的130亿桶/日降至6月份的116亿桶/日。由于切尼尔能源公司位于路易斯安那州的萨宾帕斯和得克萨斯州的Corpus Christi等几个终端设施的维护，这一数字远低于4月份140亿桶/日的月度最高点。

然而，当周周三，七个液化天然气出口厂的原料气总量上升至128亿立方英尺/日的四周高点，前一周流入萨宾帕斯终端的天然气量跃升约20亿立方英尺/日，达到约43亿立方英尺/日。相比之下，今年迄今为止，萨宾帕斯的原料气量为45亿立方英尺/日，2022年全年为45亿平方英尺/日。

郝芬 译自 天然气加工新闻网

原文如下：

U.S. natural gas prices up 2% on rising LNG feedgas, lingering hot weather

U.S. natural gas futures climbed about 2% on Friday as the daily amount of gas flowing to liquefied natural gas export plants increases, rising prices in Europe, and on forecasts for hotter-than-normal U.S. weather to continue through mid-July, especially in Texas.

In Texas, power use remained high after setting a record on Tuesday as a heat wave continues to bake the state, according to the state's grid operator, the Electric Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT).

Extreme heat boosts the amount of gas generators burn to produce power for air conditioning, especially in Texas, which gets most of its electricity from gas-fired plants. In 2022, about 49% of the state's power came from gas-fired plants, with most of the rest from wind (22%), coal (16%), nuclear (8%) and solar (4%), according to federal energy data.

Front-month gas futures for August delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange rose 5.4 cents, or 2.0%, to $2.755 per million British thermal units (mmBtu) at 10:44 a.m. EDT (1444 GMT).

For the week, the U.S. contract was up about 1%, putting it on track to rise for a fourth week in a row for the first time since April 2022.

For the month, the U.S. contract was up about 21% after falling about 6% in May.

For the quarter, the U.S. contract was up about 24% after dropping by a record 50% in the first quarter.

In Europe, gas prices at the Dutch Title Transfer Facility (TTF) benchmark in Europe jumped about 11% to A one-week high of around $12 per mmBtu.

Supply and demand

Data provider Refinitiv said average gas output in the U.S. Lower 48 states fell to 101.5 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) so far in June from a record 102.5 bcfd in May.

On a daily basis, however, output was on track to rise 1.8 bcfd over the past three days to a preliminary two-week high of 102.0 bcfd on Friday.

Meteorologists forecast the weather in the Lower 48 states would remain hotter-than-normal through at least July 15.

Refinitiv forecast U.S. gas demand, including exports, would rise from 97.9 bcfd this week to 104.2 bcfd next week as the weather turns hotter, before easing to 103.6 bcfd in two weeks as temperatures moderate a bit. The forecasts for this week and next were similar to Refinitiv's outlook on Thursday.

U.S. exports to Mexico rose to an average of 6.6 bcfd so far in June, up from 6.2 bcfd in May. That compares with a monthly record high of 6.8 bcfd in June 2021.

Gas flows to the seven big U.S. LNG export plants fell to an average of 11.6 bcfd so far in June from 13.0 bcfd in May. That is well below the monthly record high of 14.0 bcfd in April due to maintenance at several facilities, including Cheniere Energy Inc's Sabine Pass in Louisiana and Corpus Christi in Texas.

On a daily basis, however, total feedgas to the seven LNG export facilities rose to a four-week high of 12.8 bcfd on Wednesday as the amount of gas flowing to Sabine jumped about 2 bcfd over the past week to around 4.3 bcfd. That compares with average feedgas to Sabine of 4.5 bcfd so far this year and 4.5 bcfd in all of 2022.