化石燃料巨头：向绿色未来转型将需要更多天然气

据彭博新闻社2023年6月26日报道，全球最大的化石燃料公司正在发出明确的信息：向绿色未来的转型将需要更多的天然气。

从壳牌公司到雪佛龙公司，全球最大的化石燃料生产商都计划加快对这种燃料的投资。亚洲大国不断签署协议，购买2050年后的液化天然气，欧洲天然气进口国也紧随其后。美国正在推进新项目，在可预见的未来，这些项目将使美国成为全球最大的液化天然气出口国。

这种势头标志着天然气市场的一个转折点。这种“最清洁”的化石燃料曾被视为通往更环保能源的短期桥梁，但环保人士一直在寻求逐步淘汰这种燃料，因为他们担心天然气比宣传的要脏得多。现在，认为天然气需求将很快见顶的想法正在消失。

华盛顿智库战略与国际研究中心高级研究员本·卡希尔表示：“液化天然气卖家环顾这个市场，对未来几十年的天然气需求将非常有信心。”

突发的地缘政治冲突以及随后的能源危机和历史最高水平的价格飙升，改变了天然气的长期前景。欧洲正急于获取替代燃料，而新兴发展国家正在签署长期协议，以避免未来出现天然气供应短缺。

亚洲大国6月27日与卡塔尔签署了一项为期27年的协议，以保障其能源安全。一家德国进口商6月22日签署了一份具有里程碑意义的合同，将从美国购买液化天然气，直至2046年——尽管德国的目标是在此之前一年实现碳中和。

IEA公布的统计数据显示，自突发地缘政治冲突以来，全球已批准了大约600亿立方米的天然气新产能，几乎是过去10年的两倍。

瑞士信贷集团驻悉尼的能源分析师索尔·卡沃尼克说，“对股东们来说，加大对天然气的投资也是有意义的。在过去几年里，这种燃料一直是有利可图的，而追求绿色能源的目标则更加艰难”。

过去几年，天然气一直是壳牌公司和英国石油公司等能源巨头的主要盈利驱动力。几年前，生产商投入了利润率较低的可再生能源业务，但由于回报平平，他们现在正在重新考虑这些投资。

壳牌公司首席执行官6月份对投资者表示：“液化天然气将在未来的能源结构中发挥比现在更大的作用。”他在今年1月份担任壳牌公司首席执行官后概述了公司的战略转变，“液化天然气可以很容易地运输到最需要它的地方。更重要的是，平均而言，天然气发电时的碳排放量比煤炭要少50%左右。”

壳牌公司计划今年将天然气投资增加大约25%，达到历史最高水平的50亿美元，并在2025年前保持这一投资水平。去年这家总部位于伦敦的英国能源巨头加入了埃克森美孚公司和康菲公司的行列，投资卡塔尔300亿美元的液化天然气扩建项目，这是该行业有史以来规模最大的项目。

天然气也是意大利能源巨头埃尼公司增长计划的关键，这是埃尼公司6月23日以49亿美元收购海王星能源集团有限公司的一大动力。在其他地方，罗马尼亚两家最大的天然气生产商本周同意在黑海天然气项目上投资40亿欧元（44亿美元），此前双方争论了几十年。雪佛龙公司和埃克森美孚公司正在增加员工，以扩大在伦敦和新加坡的天然气交易活动。

在美国，由于德国和日本等国的买家与出口商签订长期合同，新的液化天然气工厂的开发正在得到支撑。德国和日本都有雄心勃勃的绿色目标。6月，法国道达尔能源公司推动了在美国建设一个液化天然气出口终端的计划，并同意购买该项目及其开发商的股份。这家法国能源巨头还在与沙特阿拉伯讨论投资大型天然气项目。

尽管如此，需要多少天然气和投资仍存在争议，需求可能取决于各国在减排方面的成功程度。

IEA表示，到本十年结束前，天然气需求需要大幅下降，才能使世界走上2050年实现净零排放的轨道。IEA在2021年计算出，为了实现这一目标，需要停止所有石油、天然气和煤炭的新开发项目。

联合国秘书长6月在纽约对记者表示，生产商和金融机构需要“承诺停止为勘探新油气田和扩大油气储量提供融资和投资”。

反对使用天然气的最大理由之一是甲烷的排放，甲烷是天然气生产的副产品，在大气中首个20年间的热量是二氧化碳的80多倍。美国国家科学院发表的一项研究显示，超过3%的气体泄漏使这种燃料对气候的影响比煤炭更严重，这削弱了行业声称它是一种更清洁的化石燃料的论断。

为了将天然气作为煤炭的清洁替代品推向市场，能源巨头们正在努力减少甲烷的排放。作为去年启动的一项计划的一部分，壳牌公司、埃克森美孚公司和其他十几家生产商的目标是到2030年前实现甲烷“近零”排放。

哥伦比亚大学全球能源政策中心全球研究员艾拉·约瑟夫表示：“通过最终认真对待减少甲烷排放，石油巨头们相信，他们可以为气候变化形成积极正向影响，并保持他们资产的商业相关性。”

李峻 编译自 彭博新闻社

原文如下：

Transition Needs Natural Gas: Fossil Fuel Majors

The biggest fossil fuel players are making the message clear: the transition to a green future will require much more natural gas.

From Shell Plc to Chevron Corp., the world’s top producers plan to accelerate investments in the fuel. The biggest country in Asia is signing deals to buy liquefied natural gas past 2050, with European importers not far behind. The US is forging ahead with new projects that will make it the world’s top LNG exporter for the foreseeable future.

This momentum marks a turning point for gas. The “cleanest” fossil fuel was seen as a short-term bridge to greener energy sources, and environmentalists have sought to phase it out amid worries that gas is far dirtier than advertised. Now, the idea that gas demand will peak anytime soon is disappearing.

“LNG sellers look around this market and feel pretty confident that gas demand will be with us for decades to come,” said Ben Cahill, senior fellow with the Center for Strategic and International Studies, a Washington think tank.

The war and the subsequent energy crisis and record-breaking price surge, has changed the long-term prospects for natural gas. Europe is rushing to replace fuel from pipe while emerging nations are signing long-term deals to avoid future shortages. 

The biggest country in Asia signed a 27-year agreement with Qatar on Tuesday to safeguard its energy security, and a German importer on Thursday inked a landmark contract to buy LNG from the US through 2046 — even though Germany aims to be carbon neutral a year before that.

about 60 billion cubic meters of new gas production capacity has been approved since the war, nearly double the rate compared with the past decade, according to the International Energy Agency.

Doubling down on gas also makes sense for shareholders, said Saul Kavonic, a Sydney-based energy analyst at Credit Suisse Group AG. The fuel has been profitable over the last few years while the pursuit of green energy targets has been more of a struggle, he said.

Gas has been the main earnings driver for energy companies including Shell and BP Plc over the past few years. Producers had plunged into the lower-margin renewable power business years before, but are now rethinking those investments due to lackluster returns.

“Liquefied natural gas will play an even bigger role in the energy system of the future than it plays today,” Shell’s Chief Executive Officer Wael Sawan told investors this month as he outlined a strategy shift following his promotion to the role in January. “LNG can be easily transported to places where it is needed most. And what’s more, on average, natural gas emits about 50% less carbon emissions than coal when used to produce electricity.”

Shell plans to increase natural gas investments by about 25% this year to a record $5 billion and keep spending at that level through 2025. Last year, the London-based company joined Exxon Mobil Corp. and ConocoPhillips to invest in Qatar’s $30 billion LNG expansion, the biggest ever in the industry.

Gas is also key to Italian energy group Eni SpA’s growth plans — that was a big motivation behind Friday’s $4.9 billion deal to buy Neptune Energy Group Ltd. Elsewhere, Romania’s two biggest natural gas producers agreed this week to invest as much as $4 billion ($4.4 billion) in a Black Sea gas project after decades of debate. Chevron and Exxon are adding more staff to build up their gas trading activities in London and Singapore.

In the US, the development of new LNG plants is being underpinned as buyers in countries including Germany and Japan — both of which have ambitious green goals — sign long-term contracts with exporters. TotalEnergies SE gave a boost this month to plans to build a US export terminal, agreeing to buy stakes in the project and its developer. The French company is also in discussions with Saudi Arabia to invest in its massive natural gas project. 

Still, there is a debate over how much gas and investment will be needed, with demand likely to hinge on how successful nations are in reducing emissions.

The IEA says gas demand needs to fall dramatically by the end of the decade in order to keep the world on track for net zero by 2050. The agency in 2021 calculated that all new developments of oil, gas and coal fields need to be stopped to meet that scenario.

Producers and financial institutions need to “commit to end financing and investment in exploration for new oil and gas fields, and expansion of oil and gas reserves,” United Nations Secretary-General Antonio Guterres told reporters this month in New York. “We are hurtling towards disaster, eyes wide open.”

One of the biggest arguments against natural gas is methane emissions, a byproduct of gas production that traps more than 80 times more heat than carbon dioxide in its first two decades in the atmosphere. Gas leakage of more than about 3% makes the fuel worse for the climate than coal, according to a study published by the National Academy of Sciences, undermining industry claims that it is a cleaner fossil fuel.

In order to market natural gas as a clean alternative to coal, energy majors are working to cut methane releases. Shell, Exxon Mobil and more than a dozen other producers aim to achieve “near-zero” methane emissions by 2030 as part of an initiative launched last year.

“By finally taking the reduction of methane emissions seriously, the majors believe they can thread the needle of making a positive contribution to climate change and keeping their assets commercially relevant,” said Ira Joseph, a global fellow at the Center on Global Energy Policy at Columbia University.