油气行业领导者对石油需求的长期复原力充满信心

  据油价网2023年6月30日报道，尽管面临能源转型的挑战，但油气行业的领导者对石油需求的长期复原力充满信心。

这是近日在马来西亚举行的首届亚洲能源会议发出的信息。

美国赫斯公司首席执行官约翰·赫斯在与会期间接受CNBC记者采访时表示：“能源转型将需要更长的时间，需要更多的资金，需要目前还不存在的新技术。”

埃克森美孚公司的一位高级顾问告诉CNBC记者：“预计到2050年，液化天然气仍将是世界主要的能源来源，即使需求增长在2025年后放缓。”

总体而言，到2050年前，对液体燃料的需求预计每天将增加大约1500万桶。几乎所有的需求增长都将来自亚洲、非洲、中东和拉丁美洲的新兴市场。”

本周早些时候，欧佩克秘书长也表现出乐观情绪，称欧佩克预计到2045年前全球石油日需求量将扩大到1.1亿桶。

不出所料，从长期来看，亚洲仍将是全球石油需求增长的最大推动力，标普全球丹尼尔·耶金表示：“亚洲、非洲、中东和拉丁美洲是能源需求增长的地区，未来需求还会有更多增长。” 

法国道达尔能源公司首席执行官潘彦磊对此表示赞同， “需求在亚洲。需求就在这里，亚洲有50亿流动人口，要求更好的生活方式。因此，亚洲是我们必须展望未来的方向。”

与此同时，沙特阿拉伯国家石油公司（沙特阿美）首席执行官阿明·纳赛尔指出了有关能源转型的选择性叙述。他在会上表示：“现有的转型政策正确地试图解决环境可持续性问题，但同样重要的能源安全和可负担性问题没有得到重视。”纳赛尔此番讲话暗示这将确保石油需求的长期存在。

李峻 译自 油价网

原文如下：

Oil Industry Leaders Remain Confident about Long-Term Demand

Oil and gas industry leaders are confident in the long-term resilience of oil demand despite challenges from the energy transition.

This is the message coming out of the inaugural edition of the Energy Asia conference that took place this week in Malaysia.

“Energy transition is going to take a lot longer, it’s going to cost a lot more money and need new technologies that don’t even exist today,” Hess Corp. chief executive John Hess said, as quoted by CNBC.

“Liquids are projected to remain the world’s leading energy source in 2050, even as demand growth slows beyond 2025,” a senior Exxon advisor told CNBC.

“Overall, demand for liquids is expected to rise by about 15 million barrels per day by 2050. Almost all the growth will come from the emerging markets of Asia, Africa, the Middle East and Latin America,” Erin McGrath also said.

Earlier this week, the secretary-general of OPEC also demonstrated optimism, saying OPEC forecast oil demand to expand to 110 million barrels daily by 2045.

Unsurprisingly, Asia will continue to be the biggest driver of oil demand over the long term, with S&P Global’s Daniel Yergin saying that “This is the region where the growth in energy demand will be, and more to come.”

TotalEnergies’ Patrick Pouyanne agrees. “The demand is in Asia. The demand is here, you have 5 billion people moving population, [asking] for a better way of life. And so this is where we must look to the future,” he said, as quoted by CNBC.

Meanwhile, Aramco’s chief executive Amin Nasser pointed out the selective narrative of the energy transition.

“Existing transition policies rightly attempt to address environmental sustainability, but the equally critical issues of energy security and affordability are under-emphasised,” he said at the event, suggesting this would ensure the longevity of oil demand.