油价将连续第四个季度下跌

据MRCHUB网站7月3日莫斯科报道，据烃加工网信息显示，周五油价上涨至每桶75美元以上，但由于担心全球经济活动和燃料需求疲软，油价将连续第四个季度下跌。

截至格林尼治标准时间13时10分，9月交付的基准布伦特原油期货上涨82美分，涨幅1.1%，至每桶75.33美元。周五到期的即月交易量较小的合约上涨52美分，至74.86美元。在到6月底的三个月里，该合约有望下降6%，这是连续第四个季度下降。

美国西得克萨斯中质原油（WTI）上涨86美分，涨幅1.2%，至70.72美元。该合约环比下跌6.5%，为连续第二个季度下跌。最近几个月，主要经济体的通胀压力和利率上升给市场带来了压力。

但上周美国经济活动增强和美国石油库存大幅下降的迹象提供了支撑。沙特阿拉伯计划在7月份进一步减产100万桶/日，此外欧佩克+还计划在2024年前限制供应，这为油价提供了进一步的支持。

汇丰银行分析师在一份报告中表示，尽管欧佩克+/沙特阿拉伯宣布了两轮新的减产，但原油价格基本上仍保持在每桶80美元以下，因为市场受基本面影响较小，受宏观经济担忧影响较大。

“我们认为，在夏季的部分时间里，这种情况将继续存在，尽管预计今年下半年将出现约230万桶的严重缺口，这将有助于刺激价格上涨势头。”路透社对37名经济学家和分析师进行的调查显示，随着全球经济逆风的持续，今年油价将难以上涨。作为未来供应指标的美国石油钻机数量数据将于周五晚些时候公布。

郝芬 译自 MRCHUB

原文如下：

Oil heads for fourth straight quarterly decline

Oil prices rose above USD75 a barrel on Friday but were on course for a fourth consecutive quarter of losses amid concerns over sluggish global economic activity and fuel demand, said Hydrocarbonprocessing.

Benchmark Brent crude futures for September delivery were up 82 cents, or 1.1%, at USD75.33 a barrel by 1310 GMT. The less-traded front-month contract, which expires on Friday, was up 52 cents at USD74.86. The contract was on track for a 6% decline in the three months to the end of June, marking a fourth straight quarterly decline.

U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude (WTI) was up 86 cents or 1.2% to USD70.72. The contract is down 6.5% on a quarterly basis, its second consecutive quarterly drop. Inflationary pressure and rising interest rates in key economies  have weighed on markets in recent months.

But signs of strengthening U.S. economic activity and sharp declines in U.S. oil inventories last week offered support. Saudi Arabia's plans to cut output by a further 1 million barrels per day in July in addition to a broader OPEC+ deal to limit supply into 2024 offers further support.

"Despite the announcements of two fresh rounds of cuts from OPEC+/Saudi Arabia, crude prices have largely remained below $80 a barrel as the market has been driven less by fundamentals and more by macroeconomic concerns," HSBC analysts said in a note.

"We think this will continue to be the case for part of the summer, although the deep deficit of around 2.3 million barrels forecast for 2H23 should help to spur some upwards price momentum." A Reuters survey of 37 economists and analysts showed oil prices will struggle for traction this year as global economic headwinds linger. U.S. oil rig count data, an indicator of future supply, will be released later on Friday.