据油价网7月3日报道， 澳大利亚工业、科学和资源部报道称，澳大利亚商品出口在过去的财年中因能源价格上涨而大幅增长，但随着价格回落，预计将出现下滑。
数据显示，2022/2023财年能源和其他资源出口增长了9%，达到了价值约3000亿美元（4600亿澳元）的历史最高水平。
然而，这一数据在下一个财年预计将下降15%，降至约2600亿美元（3900亿澳元），在随后一年将下降至约2900亿美元（3440亿澳元）。
根据EnergyQuest今年早些时候发布的数据，澳大利亚液化天然气出口在2022年创历史最高水平达到了8140万吨，比上一年的出口量增长了0.5%。大部分出口日本，亚洲大国位居第二。
在当前财年，由于国际价格下降，液化天然气出口的价值预计将下降27%，煤炭出口也预计下降约40%。
有趣的是，为能源转型提供原料的关键金属和矿物质的出口预计在本财年保持基本不变，约270亿美元（400亿澳元），与2022/2023财年数据持平。这一水平是2021/2022财年关键金属出口量的两倍，该部门表示。
在能源方面，尽管最近有所下降，该部门仍预测全球价格将保持较高水平。该预测归因于对产能大国能源出口的制裁限制。
报告称：“运输和基础设施限制仍然是产能大国能源出口完全转向未被制裁国家的巨大障碍。”报告还补充道：“结果是全球能源供应下降，因为部分产量被滞留。”
报告继续指出，除非全球能源需求大幅下降，否则价格将保持高于2022年之前的水平。
胡耀东 译自 油价网
原文如下：
Australian Commodity Exports Set To Fall From Record Highs
Australian commodity exports have surged in the past financial year driven by the rise in energy prices but are set to slump as prices retreat, the Australian Department of Industry, Science and Resources has reported.
Energy and other resource exports in financial 2022/23 rose by 9%, the data showed, reaching a record-high value of some $300 billion, or A$460 billion.
However, they are set to decline by 15% in the next financial year to about $260 billion, or A$390 billion, falling further in the year after, to about $290 billion, or A$344 billion.
Australian LNG exports hit a record in 2022, reaching 81.4 million tons, which was 0.5% higher than the previous year’s exports. Most of the exports went to Japan, and the biggest country in Asia took second place, according to data from EnergyQuest released earlier this year.
In the current financial year, LNG exports are set to decline by a sizeable 27% in terms of value as international prices have fallen. Coal exports are also expected to decline, by some 40%.
Interestingly, exports of critical metals and minerals for the energy transition are seen remaining largely unchanged in the current fiscal year, at around $27 billion, or $40 billion, which was the level reached in fiscal 2022/23. This was twice the critical metal export level of 2021/22, the ministry said.
In energy specifically, the resources ministry forecast that global prices are set to remain elevated despite the recent decline. It attributed the forecast to constraints the bigger producer's energy exports due to sanctions.
“Transport and infrastructure constraints remain a huge obstacle to the full diversion of its energy exports to nations with no sanctions,” the report said, adding that “The net result is a fall in world energy supply, as some it output is stranded.”
Unless global energy demand declined substantially, the report went on to add, prices will remain higher than before 2022.
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