据美国钻井地带网站2023年7月3日报道，沙特阿拉伯将在7月份额外日减100万桶原油产量，加上季节性需求走强，应该有助于在今年第三季度实际收紧市场。
这是惠誉解决方案公司BMI的分析师们在一份新报告中作出的声明。
分析师们在报告中表示：“中东和北非(MENA)地区产油国在夏季倾向于减少原油出口，届时原油产量将转向国内市场，以满足国内峰值需求。”
“这种趋势并不局限于中东和北非地区，全球石油消费通常在6月至9月期间上升。这在很大程度上是由于旅行增加刺激了对汽油和航空燃料的更高需求。”分析师们补充说。
分析师们继续说：“空中交通仍在从疫情中复苏，而美国的驾车季节也有了一个强劲的开端，这两个因素都应该会支撑季节性需求增长趋势。”
BMI分析师们在报告中承认，沙特阿拉伯的额外减产最早可能在8月份恢复，但他们表示，“沙特阿拉伯似乎更有可能选择将减产延续到7月以后的几个月，或者交错增加产量，以避免价格再次上涨的风险”。
“从理论上讲，这应该会支持油价上涨。然而，在今年的大部分时间里，价格走势已脱离基本面，而基本面仍相对有弹性”，分析师们在报告中表示。
分析师补充称：“这在价差和布伦特原油管理资金头寸的变化中很明显……尽管欧佩克+对市场进行了多次强有力的干预，但今年油价一直难以保持涨势。”
“从上行方面看，布伦特原油似乎在70美元附近找到了底部，但反弹受到卖空者和普遍看跌的宏观情绪的限制。”分析师们继续说道。
剧烈涨落
在上周另一份报告中，渣打银行分析师们表示，他们预计基本面将收紧到足以对原油价格产生更大影响的程度。
分析师们在报告中补充称：“我们的供需模型显示，受季节性需求波动和中东主要产油国减产的影响，原油供应将从4月份的每天141万桶过剩大幅下滑至7月份每天133万桶和8月份每天170万桶的短缺。”
根据EIA 6月份发布的最新一期短期能源展望(STEO)报告，第三季度原油和其他液体库存每天净提取量预计为20万桶，第四季度为1万桶。STEO报告预计第二季度总库存将日增52万桶。
STEO报告表示，第二季度石油和其他液体产品的日总产量预计将达到1.0133亿桶，第三季度达到1.0140亿桶，第四季度达到1.0169亿桶。STEO报告预计第二季度的石油和其他液体日总消费量为1.0081亿桶，第三季度为1.016亿桶，第四季度为1.0169亿桶。
在5月份发布的上一份STEO报告中，EIA预计第二季度总库存日增29万桶，第四季度日增4万桶。在5月份的STEO报告中，预计第三季度的总库存没有变化。
沙特减产
瑞典北欧斯安银行 (SEB)首席商品分析师Bjarne Schieldrop在6月份一份声明中强调，沙特阿拉伯每天额外减产100万桶原油产量“对市场来说是个大惊喜”。
Schieldrop在声明中表示：“额外的减产将确保油价不会跌破每桶70美元，防止库存上升，并为7月4日至6日的下一次欧佩克+会议奠定良好的战术谈判基础。”
他补充说：“如果没有必要每天削减100万桶原油产量，那么沙特阿拉伯将在8月份解除，如果确实需要，那么沙特阿拉伯可以强力支持欧佩克+从8月份开始联合减产。”
挪威雷斯塔能源公司高级副总裁乔治·利昂表示，“沙特7月份之后减产的纯粹可能性将限制今年剩余时间内的原油价格下行压力”。
在最新的报告中利昂强调说，沙特阿拉伯7月份的原油日产量将降至略低于900万桶，这是沙特阿拉伯原油产量自2021年6月以来的最低水平。
李峻 译自 美国钻井地带网站
原文如下：
Analysts Say These Factors Should Help Physically Tighten Market in Q3
An additional one million barrel per day unilateral cut by Saudi Arabia, set to take effect in July, coupled with seasonally stronger demand, should help to physically tighten the market in the third quarter.
That’s according to analysts at BMI, a Fitch Solutions company, who made the statement in a new report sent to Rigzone.
“Middle East and North Africa (MENA) producers tend to export less crude during their summer season, when crude production is diverted to the domestic market, to meet peaking demand,” the analysts stated in the report.
“This trend is not limited to MENA, with global oil consumption typically rising between June and September. Much of this is driven by higher demand for gasoline and jet fuel, spurred by increased travel,” the analysts added.
“Air traffic is still recovering from the pandemic, while the U.S. driving is off to a strong start, both of which should bolster seasonal trends,” the analysts continued.
In the report, the BMI analysts conceded that the barrels from Saudi Arabia’s additional cut could be returned as early as August but stated that “it seems more likely that the kingdom will opt for either a rollover into subsequent months, or a staggered increase in production, so as not to risk a relapse in prices”.
“In theory, this should support gains in the oil price. However, price action over much of 2023 has been detached from the fundamentals, which remain relatively resilient,” the analysts said in the report.
“This is evident in the shifts seen in terms spreads and in managed money positioning in Brent … prices have struggled to hold gains this year, despite repeated and robust market interventions made by OPEC+,” the analysts added.
“On the upside, Brent appears to have found a floor around the low $70s, but rallies have been capped by short sellers and generally bearish macro sentiment,” the analysts continued.
Sharp Swing
In a separate report sent to Rigzone last week, analysts at Standard Chartered said they expect fundamentals to tighten enough to exert a greater pull on prices.
“Our supply-demand model shows a sharp swing from a 1.41 million barrel per day surplus in April to deficits of 1.33 million barrels per day in July and 1.70 million barrels per day in August helped by seasonal demand swings and output cuts by key Middle East producers,” the analysts added in that report.
In the U.S. Energy Information Administration’s (EIA) latest short term energy outlook (STEO), which was released in June, total crude oil and other liquids inventory net withdrawals were projected to come in at 0.20 million barrels per day in the third quarter and 0.01 million barrels per day in the fourth quarter. The STEO projects a total stock build of 0.52 million barrels per day in the second quarter.
Total petroleum and other liquids production is expected to come in at 101.33 million barrels per day in the second quarter, 101.40 million barrels per day in the third quarter, and 101.69 million barrels per day in the fourth quarter, the STEO showed. Total petroleum and other liquids consumption is projected in the STEO to come in at 100.81 million barrels per day in the second quarter, 101.60 million barrels per day in the third quarter, and 101.69 million barrels per day in the fourth quarter.
In its previous STEO, which was released in May, the EIA projected a total stock build of 0.29 million barrels per day in the second quarter and 0.04 million barrels per day in the fourth quarter. A total stock draw of 0.00 million barrels per day was expected in the third quarter in the May STEO.
Saudi Cut
In a statement sent to Rigzone last month, Bjarne Schieldrop, the Chief Commodity Analyst at Skandinaviska Enskilda Banken AB (SEB), highlighted that Saudi Arabia’s additional one million barrel per day cut was a “big surprise to the market”.
“The additional cut will make sure the oil price won't fall below $70 per barrel, prevent inventories from rising, and make for a great tactical negotiation setup for the next OPEC+ meeting on July 4-6,” Schieldrop said in the statement.
“If the one million barrel per day July cut is unnecessary, then it will be unwound for August and if it indeed was needed then Saudi Arabia can strong-arm rest of OPEC+ to make a combined cut from August,” he added.
In a market update sent to Rigzone in June, Rystad Energy Senior Vice President Jorge Leon said, “the pure possibility of the Saudi production cut extending beyond July will limit downside price pressure for the rest of 2023”.
In the update, Leon highlighted that Saudi crude production in July would drop to just below nine million barrels per day, which he noted is the country’s lowest level since June 2021.
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