据油价网7月12日报道，随着供应逐渐紧缩和需求增长，布伦特原油价格首次自5月初以来攀升至每桶80美元以上。尽管数据显示上周美国原油库存增加了近600万桶，交易商们仍将焦点放在夏季驾车旺季中的国内需求激增上。
最新的原油价格上涨是在沙特阿拉伯连续第二个月将其自愿的每日100万桶原油减产延长后出现的，这一次延长将持续至8月。减产将使该国的产量降至每天约900万桶，为数年来的最低水平。为了提振疲软的油价，沙特阿拉伯一直在牺牲销售量，但迄今为止几乎没有得到回报，因为包括美国在内的非欧佩克产油国提高了供应量。
EIA报告称，美国原油产量今年有望创下历史最高水平，到4月份底同比增长9%。EIA预测，今年美国总产量将达到1261万桶/日，超过2019年创下的1232万桶/日的最高水平，并轻松超过2022年的1189万桶/日。尽管欧佩克+宣布今年比2022年削减约6%的产量，雷斯塔能源估计，非欧佩克国家的产量弥补了这些削减的三分之二，这让欧佩克推高油价的努力受挫。
与此同时，迪拜原油的交易活跃推高了其相对WTI原油的溢价，达到自3月下旬以来的最高水平，这可能使美国原油在亚洲市场上更具竞争力。在波斯湾产油国如沙特阿拉伯提高价格和运费上涨之后，越来越多的交易商转向迪拜原油。
彭博社报道称，新加坡迪拜交易中心的迪拜原油期货与美国WTI原油之间的价差达到每桶3.65美元。部分交易的增加（即将小批次期货交易积累并转化为实际货物）也提振了迪拜原油价格。亚洲对美国原油的出口一直在增加，买家们在数月的购买廉价原油后又开始回购美国原油。
迪拜原油被认为是其他地区原油的代表。
胡耀东 译自 油价网
原文如下：
Brent Oil Price Rises Above $80 Per Barrel As Supply Tightens
Brent crude has climbed above $80 a barrel for the first time since early May, a sign that supply is gradually tightening and demand growing. The oil prices gains came despite data showing U.S. crude inventories jumped by nearly 6 million barrels last week with traders focusing on surging domestic demand during the summer driving season.
The latest oil price rally comes after Saudi Arabia, for the second month running, extended its voluntary 1M bbl/day oil production cut for another month, this time till August. The reduction will take the country’s production to ~9M bbl/day, the lowest level in several years. The Kingdom has been single-handedly sacrificing sales volume in a bid to goose weak oil prices, but has so far reaped little reward, thanks to increased supply by non-OPEC producers including the United States.
The Energy Information Administration has reported that U.S. crude oil production is on track to set a record this year, up 9% Y/Y through April. EIA has forecast total U.S. output will hit 12.61M bbl/day in the current year, above the previous record of 12.32M bbl/day set in 2019 and easily beating last year's 11.89M bbl/day. Although OPEC and its allies have announced cuts amounting to ~6% of 2022's production, Rystad Energy estimates output in countries outside OPEC is making up for about two-thirds of those reductions, frustrating OPEC’s efforts to goose prices.
Meanwhile, heavy trading in Dubai oil has lifted its premium to WTI crude to its highest since late March, a development that could make U.S. crude even more competitive in Asia. More traders have turned to Dubai after Persian Gulf producers such as Saudi Arabia hiked prices and shipping rates also climbed.
Bloomberg has reported that Dubai swaps were trading at a premium of $3.65 a barrel above U.S. benchmark West Texas Intermediate futures in Singapore, with the spread usually smaller than $3. Increased trading of partial—smaller lots that are accumulated and converted into physical cargoes—is also giving a boost to Dubai oil prices. Asian exports of U.S. crude have been climbing with buyers returning after months of scooping up cheap barrels.
Dubai oil is considered a proxy for other regional grades.
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