阿联酋宣布将不再自愿减产

沙特宣布将自愿减产100万桶/天的协议延长至8月

非欧佩克成员国产量的增加阻碍了欧佩克+提振原油价格的努力

据油价网7月10日报道，阿联酋宣布，它不会加入沙特自愿减产的行列，并称沙特的减产足以平衡市场。考虑到阿联酋过去曾称，应该允许它的产量超过目前的欧佩克配额，这一点也不奇怪。阿联酋计划到2027年将其原油产能提高到500万桶/天，远高于欧佩克300万桶/天的配额。

一周前，沙特连续第二个月将自愿减产100万桶/天的协议再延长一个月至8月。此次减产将使沙特的日产量降至900万桶，为几年来的最低水平。为了提振疲软的油价，沙特一直在单兵作战牺牲销量，但由于包括美国在内的非欧佩克产油国的供应增加，迄今为止收效甚微。

EIA报告称，今年美国原油产量有望创下历史最高水平，到4月份为止，原油产量同比增长9%。EIA预测，今年美国的石油总产量将达到1261万桶/天，高于2019年创下的1232万桶/天，并轻松超过去年的1189万桶/天。尽管欧佩克及其盟友已宣布减产约占2022年产量的6%，但雷斯塔能源估计，欧佩克以外国家的产量约占减产量的三分之二，这使欧佩克提振油价的努力受挫。

尽管原油价格较低，但效率提高和技术更新使美国石油公司的利润更高。据摩根大通估计，自2014年以来，美国页岩油的钻井和水力压裂成本下降了36%。目前石油巨头埃克森美孚押注页岩油生产商可以通过采用新式的水力压裂技术将现有产量提高一倍。

“有很多石油被留在地下。”埃克森美孚首席执行官达伦·伍兹周四在伯恩斯坦战略决策会议上表示，“水力压裂法已经存在了很长时间，但水力压裂法的实际作用并没有得到很好的理解。”伍兹透露，埃克森美孚目前正在两个具体领域改进水力压裂技术。该公司正试图沿着油井更精确地追踪油迹，以便找出更多被石油浸透的岩石。该公司还在寻找方法，让裂缝保持更长时间，以促进石油流动。

寿琳玲 译自 油价网

原文如下：

UAE Will Not Make Voluntary Oil Production Cuts

The UAE has announced it will not make any additional voluntary oil production cuts.

Saudi Arabia announced it will extend its voluntary 1 million bpd production cut through August.

Increasing production from non-OPEC members has frustrated OPEC+ efforts to bolster crude prices.

The United Arab Emirates has announced that it will not join Saudi Arabia in making voluntary oil production cuts, claiming that the cuts by the Saudis are enough to balance the markets.  This is hardly surprising considering that the UAE has in the past argued that it should be allowed to pump more than its current OPEC quota.  The UAE has plans to ramp up its crude production capacity to five million barrels per day (bpd) by 2027, well above OPEC’s quota of 3 mb/d.

A week ago, for the second month running, Saudi Arabia extended its voluntary 1M bbl/day oil production cut for another month, this time till August.  The reduction will take the country’s production to ~9M bbl/day, the lowest level in several years.  The Kingdom has been single-handedly sacrificing sales volume in a bid to goose weak oil prices, but has so far reaped little reward, thanks to increased supply by non-OPEC producers including the United States.

The Energy Information Administration has reported that U.S. crude oil production is on track to set a record this year, up 9% Y/Y through April.  EIA has forecast total U.S. output will hit 12.61M bbl/day in the current year, above the previous record of 12.32M bbl/day set in 2019 and easily beating last year's 11.89M bbl/day.  Although OPEC and its allies have announced cuts amounting to ~6% of 2022's production, Rystad Energy estimates output in countries outside OPEC is making up for about two-thirds of those reductions, frustrating OPEC’s efforts to goose prices.

Improved efficiency and newer technologies have made U.S. oil companies more profitable, even at lower crude prices, with J.P. Morgan estimating that the cost of drilling and fracking in the U.S. shale has dropped by 36% since 2014.  Shale giant ExxonMobil Corp. (NYSE:XOM) is now betting that shale producers can double crude output from their existing wells by employing novel fracking technologies.

“There’s just a lot of oil being left in the ground. Fracking’s been around for a really long time, but the science of fracking is not well understood,” Exxon Chief Executive Officer Darren Woods said Thursday at the Bernstein Strategic Decisions conference. Woods has revealed that Exxon is currently working on two specific areas to improve fracking. First off, the company is trying to frack more precisely along the well so that more oil-soaked rock gets drained. It’s also looking for ways to keep the fracked cracks open longer so as to boost the flow of oil.