沙特阿拉伯对全球需求疲软非常敏感

据钻井地带网7月10日报道，花旗银行全球商品研究主管埃德·莫尔斯在接受钻井地带网站采访时表示，沙特阿拉伯对全球需求疲软非常敏感。

莫尔斯补充道：“市场疲软的另一个因素似乎是供应过剩，不仅来自美国，还来自‘五个脆弱的’欧佩克国家，这些国家在2023年6月的石油产量为1056万桶/日，而在2022年6月的产量为970万桶/日。”

他告诉钻井地带，考虑到原本沙特宣布的每日减产100万桶未能对油价产生任何实质性的影响，“正如预期的那样，他们将减产延长了一个月”。

需求和产量

根据EIA今年6月发布的最新短期能源展望（STEO），第一季度石油和其他液体燃料的总消费量为每天9993万桶。该展望预计第二季度的消费量将达到每天10081万桶，第三季度为每天10160万桶，第四季度为每天10169万桶。

STEO显示，第一季度石油和其他液体燃料的总产量为每天10106万桶。该展望预计第二季度的产量将达到每天10133万桶，第三季度为每天10140万桶，第四季度为每天10169万桶。

根据STEO数据，美国石油和其他液体燃料的产量在第一季度为每天2102万桶，预计第二季度将达到每天2126万桶，第三季度为每天2134万桶，第四季度为每天2141万桶，2023年全年为每天2126万桶。STEO强调表示，2022年美国的产量为每天2021万桶。

STEO指出，欧佩克石油和其他液体燃料的总产量在今年第一季度为每天3395万桶。该展望预计第二季度为每天3373万桶，第三季度为每天3317万桶，第四季度为每天3321万桶，2023年全年为每天3351万桶。STEO显示，2022年欧佩克的总产量为每天3417万桶。

唯一选择是延长减产

惠誉解决方案（BMI）石油和天然气部门主管约瑟夫·加特杜拉上周告诉钻井地带网站：“考虑到自6月初首次宣布减产以来油价的疲软，沙特阿拉伯唯一的选择就是将自愿减产延长到8月。”

加特杜拉补充道：“削减或取消减产将为时过早，很可能对油价产生强烈的下行压力，因为熊市情绪占据了价格行动的主导地位。”

在7月4日上午发送给钻井地带网站的一份石油交易简报中，雷斯塔能源高级副总裁乔治·莱昂和雷斯塔能源高级分析师帕特里西奥·瓦尔迪维埃索指出，市场立即对沙特阿拉伯的减产延期公告做出了反应。

“雷斯塔能源认为，这一举措强化了我们的观点，即沙特减产可能每月延长一次，从而限制了今年余下时间内价格的下行压力，无论宏观经济环境如何。”分析师在简报中说道。

胡耀东 译自 钻井地带 网站

原文如下：

Saudis Sensitive to Weak Level of Demand

Saudi Arabia is sensitive to the “weak level” of demand in the world, according to Ed Morse, the Global Head of Commodities Research at Citi.

“Another factor in market weakness appears to be too much supply, not just from the United States, but from the ‘Fragile Five’ OPEC countries, which combined produced 10.56 million barrels per day in June 2023, against 9.7 million barrels per day in June 2022,” Morse added.

The Citi Head told Rigzone that, given the lack of any concrete price response to the original one million barrel per day cut the Saudis announced for July, “as expected they extended their cuts by another month”.

Demand, Production

According to the U.S. Energy Information Administration’s (EIA) latest short term energy outlook (STEO), which was released in June, total petroleum and other liquids consumption came in at 99.93 million barrels per day in the first quarter of the year. This figure is projected in the STEO to be 100.81 million barrels per day in the second quarter, 101.60 million barrels per day in the third quarter, and 101.69 million barrels per day in the fourth quarter.

Total petroleum and other liquids production was 101.06 million barrels per day in the first quarter, the STEO showed. The STEO expects this figure to come in at 101.33 million barrels per day in the second quarter, 101.40 million barrels per day in the third quarter, and 101.69 million barrels per day in the fourth quarter.

U.S. petroleum and other liquids production was 21.02 million barrels per day in the first quarter, according to the STEO, which projected the country’s output to come in at 21.26 million barrels per day in the second quarter, 21.34 million barrels per day in the third quarter, 21.41 million barrels per day in the fourth quarter, and 21.26 million barrels per day for the whole of 2023. U.S. production was 20.21 million barrels per day in 2022, the STEO highlighted.

Total OPEC petroleum and other liquids production was 33.95 million barrels per day in the first quarter of the year, the STEO outlined. The STEO anticipates that this figure will be 33.73 million barrels per day in the second quarter, 33.17 million barrels per day in the third quarter, 33.21 million barrels per day in the fourth quarter, and 33.51 million barrels per day in 2023 overall. Total OPEC output was 34.17 million barrels per day in 2022, the STEO showed.

only Option Was to Extend

Joseph Gatdula, the Head of Oil and Gas at BMI, a Fitch Solutions company, told Rigzone last week that “Saudi Arabia’s only option was to extend voluntary cuts into August given weakness in oil prices seen since they were first announced in early June”.

“A reduction or roll-back in the cuts would have been premature and likely would have had strong downside impacts to prices, as bearish sentiment is dominating price action,” Gatdula added.

In an oil trading alert sent to Rigzone on the morning of July 4, Rystad Energy Senior Vice President Jorge Leon and Rystad Senior Analyst Patricio Valdivieso outlined that the markets immediately reacted to Saudi Arabia’s production cut extension announcement.

“Rystad Energy believes that this move reinforces our thesis that this mechanism of a possible monthly extension of Saudi cuts limits downside price pressure for the rest of the year, regardless of the macroeconomic environment,” the analysts said in the alert.