IEA：今年全球石油日需求将达到历史最高1.021亿桶

  据美国钻井地带网站2023年7月17日报道，国际能源署(IEA)在其最新一期的《石油市场报告》(OMR)中表示，今年全球石油日需求量将增加220万桶，日需求量将达到历史最高水平的1.021亿桶。  

IEA预计，明年全球石油日需求增长将放缓至110万桶。IEA表示：“充满挑战的经济环境正在给全球石油需求增长带来压力，尤其是由于许多发达国家和发展中国家在过去12个月里大幅收紧货币政策。”

IEA预测，今年全球石油日产量将增加160万桶，达到1.015亿桶，其中非欧佩克+国家的石油日产量预计将增加190万桶。IEA预计，明年全球石油日供应量将增加120万桶，日供应量将达到1.028亿桶的新高，其中非欧佩克+国家将贡献全部增长。

报告称，自去年11月首次实施减产以来，沙特阿拉伯和欧佩克+核心成员国的减产被其他产油国的增产所抵消。来自美国的石油日供应量增加了61万桶，其中液化天然气产量跳升至历史新高，而生物燃料则出现季节性增加。然而，IEA预测，随着沙特阿拉伯实施更大幅度的减产，7月份全球石油日供应量可能减少100多万桶。

观察到的全球石油库存在5月份增加1940万桶，达到2021年9月以来的最高水平，因为亚洲需求激增导致非经济合作与发展组织(OECD)成员国的石油库存增加了4420万桶。经合组织5月份的工业库存每天增加17万桶。

在4月份的OMR中，IEA预测今年世界石油日需求将增加200万桶，达到1.019亿桶。4月份的OMR指出，受亚洲大国经济复苏的提振，非经合组织国家将占到增量的90%。

今年IEA将第一季度的全球石油日需求预测大幅上调50万桶，并将今年全年的需求预测上调近一半。因此，今年全球石油日消费量将增加200万桶，达到日均1.019亿桶。

与此同时，根据IEA的另一份报告，根据对大中型石油、天然气和煤炭公司宣布的支出计划的分析，今年化石燃料供应投资将增加6%以上，达到9500亿美元左右。

然而，IEA表示，2026年以后，运输燃料的石油使用量将下降，石油需求的增长将“在未来几年放缓至几乎停滞”。

李峻 译自 钻井地带 网站

原文如下：

Global Oil Demand to Reach Record High in 2023: IEA

Global oil demand will increase by 2.2 million barrels per day (MMbpd) to reach a record high of 102.1 MMbpd in 2023, the International Energy Agency (IEA) said in its latest oil market report (OMR).

The IEA projects growth to slow to 1.1 MMbpd in 2024. “World oil demand is coming under pressure from the challenging economic environment, not least because of the dramatic tightening of monetary policy in many advanced and developing countries over the past twelve months”, the IEA said.

The IEA forecast global oil production to rise by 1.6 MMbpd to 101.5 MMbpd, as output from non-OPEC+ nations is expected to increase by 1.9 MMbpd. In 2024, the agency sees global oil supply rising by 1.2 MMbpd to a new record of 102.8 MMbpd, with non-OPEC+ nations accounting for all of the increase.

Lower output from Saudi Arabia and core OPEC+ members, since production cuts were first implemented last November, has been offset by higher output from other producers, according to the report. Supply from the USA rose by 610,000 bpd with natural gas liquids jumping to all-time highs while biofuels increased seasonally. However, the IEA predicts that global supply could fall by more than 1.0 MMbpd this month as Saudi Arabia implements steeper cuts.

Observed global oil inventories rose by 19.4 million barrels in May to the highest level since September 2021, as a surge in the biggest coutry in Asia led to a 44.2 million barrel build in nations not part of the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD). OECD industry stocks rose by 170,000 bpd in May, while the biggest coutry in Asia posted its largest monthly increase in crude stocks in a year at 1.1 MMbpd. 

In its April OMR, the IEA projected that world oil demand will climb by two million barrels per day in 2023 to “a record 101.9 million barrels per day”. Non-OECD countries, buoyed by a resurgence of the biggest country in Asia, will account for 90 percent of growth, the April OMR noted.

In May, the IEA raised global demand estimates by a hefty 500,000 barrels a day for the first quarter, and by just under half as much for the year as a whole. As a result, world consumption would climb by 2.0 million barrels a day this year to average 101.9 million a day, it had predicted.

Meanwhile, according to a separate report by the IEA, fossil fuel supply investments are set to rise by more than six percent to around $950 billion for 2023, based on an analysis of the announced spending plans of large- and medium-sized oil, gas, and coal companies.

However, the use of oil for transport fuels will decline after 2026, and growth in oil demand will “slow almost to a halt in the coming years”, the IEA said