库存增长速度创新高 全球天然气市场仍然疲软

欧洲和美国的过剩天然气库存令天然气价格持续低迷

欧洲对美国液化天然气（LNG）的采购量减少，6月份的进口量为415万吨，较5月份的563万吨有所下降

亚洲填补了欧洲留下的空缺，预计将购买更多的美国LNG

因库存增加速度创新高，天然气市场仍保持看跌情绪

据油价网7月19日报道，几周前国际能源署（IEA）警告称，天然气价格可能在今年冬季再次飙升，迫使政府再次补贴能源费用。

但并非每个人都准备接受这种看涨的观点，渣打银行的商品分析师认为天然气价格风险仍偏向下行。

渣打指出，尽管当前欧洲正面临热浪和增加的用电需求来降温，但天然气库存继续快速增长。根据欧洲天然气基础设施（GIE）的数据，到7月16日，欧盟天然气库存为945.2亿立方米，较去年同期增加了217.3亿立方米，高于五年平均水平184.6亿立方米。

欧盟在冬季前填满其天然气储备的购买热情，迄今尚未出现。而6月份欧洲进口了950万吨天然气，较5月份的1211万吨有所下降，也是自2022年8月以来的最低月度总量。受到有史以来最严重能源危机的冲击，欧盟于2022年成立了天然气买家联盟，并开始发布供应招标。欧盟有约50家天然气供应商和大型工业天然气消费者立即表达了参与该联盟联合购买天然气的兴趣。整个计划的一个主要目标是通过大批量购买来保持天然气价格低廉。

欧洲的天然气买家俱乐部取得了显著的成功，该地区的天然气储备几乎填满了80％。不幸的是，欧洲对美国LNG的采购也减少了，6月份的进口量为415万吨，较5月份的563万吨有所下降。

与此同时，美国的天然气库存也在持续增长，到2023年7月14日的一周内，库存增加了49亿立方英尺，达到2930亿立方英尺。

欧洲和美国过剩的天然气库存仍然是压制天然气价格的最大看跌因素，除非出现非同寻常的黑天鹅事件，否则这种局面将难以扭转。问题在于不仅天然气库存在增加，而且增速极快。

渣打银行指出，为了使库存在注入季节结束时达到历史高位，从当前时点开始，库存增加值需超过五年平均水平的40.6%以上。然而，大宗商品专家表示，库存的增长速度远远超过了这个关键水平，过去一周的平均增幅为每天3.3亿立方米，几乎比同期间五年平均水平高出100%。如果维持目前的天然气注入速度，库存将在注入季节结束时超过1200亿立方米，比历史高位高出10亿立方米以上。

大量的天然气涌入市场使得近期期货价格承受巨大压力，2023年10月交付的期货价格现在比2024年4月交付的价格低近12欧元/兆瓦时。相比之下，今年年初的期货价格还溢价超过5欧元，而一年前则溢价38欧元。

亚洲成为美国的主要客户

不过，对于美国天然气生产商来说并非全都是末日与沮丧，因为亚洲正在弥补欧洲留下的空缺。

亚洲对美国液化天然气（LNG）的进口量在6月份达到134万吨，较5月份的121万吨有所增加，是自今年2月以来最高。实际上，亚洲现在是美国最大的LNG客户，而去年欧洲则是美国LNG产量的65%的购买者。

目前，萨宾帕斯终端有6个全时段运营的液化生产线，每条生产线能够生产约500万吨的LNG，铭牌产能约为每年约3000万吨。美国天然气生产商切尼尔公司每天将超过47亿立方英尺的天然气加工成LNG。萨宾帕斯终端有多条管道连接到州际和州内管道，并且距离墨西哥湾不到4海里，因此便于海上船只进出。

此前，切尼尔还与挪威国家石油公司Equinor ASA签署了另一项长期液化天然气销售协议，根据协议，Equinor将购买每年约175万吨的LNG，购买价格以亨利枢纽价格为基准，为期15年。

徐曼琳 译自 油价网

原文如下：

Gas Markets Remain Bearish As Inventories Rise At A Record Clip

Excess gas inventories in Europe and the U.S. keep natural gas prices down.

Europe’s purchases of U.S. LNG have dwindled, with June’s volumes clocking in at 4.15 million metric tons, down from 5.63 million tons in May.

Asia picking up the slack left by Europe and are expected to buy more U.S. LNG.

Gas Markets Remain Bearish As Inventories Rise At A Record Clip

A couple of weeks ago, the International Energy Agency (IEA) warned that natural gas prices may spike again this winter, forcing governments to subsidize bills, again. The IEA’s executive director said: “In a scenario where the Chinese economy is very strong, buys a lot of energy from the markets and we have a harsh winter, we may see strong upward pressure under natural gas prices, which in turn will put an extra burden on consumers.” IEA executive director Fatih Birol told BBC Radio.

But not everybody is ready to buy into that bullish thesis, with commodity analysts at Standard Chartered arguing that natural gas price risk remains skewed to the downside.

StanChart notes that gas inventories continue rising at a rapid clip despite the current European heatwave and increased electricity demand for cooling. According to Gas Infrastructure, Europe (GIE) data, EU gas inventories stood at 94.52 billion cubic meters (bcm) on 16 July, a good 21.73bcm higher y/y and 18.46 bcm above the five-year average.

The much-awaited buying frenzy by the EU as it looks to fill its gas stores ahead of winter has yet to materialize. Europe imported 9.50 million metric tons in June, down from 12.11 million in May and the lowest monthly total since August 2022. Rocked by one of the worst energy crises in living memory, the European Union launched a gas buyers’ cartel in 2022 and started issuing tenders for supplies. According to Sefcovic, some 50 gas suppliers and large industrial gas consumers in the EU immediately expressed interest in being part of the bloc’s joint gas-buying effort. A key objective of the whole endeavor is to keep gas prices low by buying in larger volumes.

Well, Europe’s gas buyer’s club has been a resounding success, with the continent’s gas stores nearly 80% full. Unfortunately, Europe’s purchases of U.S. LNG have also dwindled, with June’s volumes clocking in at 4.15 million metric tons, down from 5.63 million tons in May.

Meanwhile, U.S. gas inventories have also been ticking higher, with stocks for the week ended July 14, 2023, up 49 Bcf to 2,930 Bcf.

Excess gas inventories in Europe and the U.S. remain the biggest bearish catalyst that’s capping gas prices, and it will take an extraordinarily black swan event for the situation to turn around. The big problem here is that not only are gas inventories rising but are doing so at a torrid clip.

StanChart notes that for inventories to finish the injection season at an all-time high, they would need to increase by more than 40.6% of the five-year average build from this point. However, the commodity experts say that inventories are building up at a far faster pace than that critical level, with the average build over the past week of 330 million cubic meters per day (mcm/d) nearly 100% higher than the five-year average over the equivalent period. If the current rate of gas injection is maintained, inventories will finish the injection season at just above 120 bcm, more than 10 bcm above the record-high.

The deluge of gas has put nearby futures prices under immense pressure, with futures for gas delivered in October 2023 now trading at a discount of almost 12 euros per megawatt-hour to prices for April 2024. In contrast, they traded at a premium of more than 5 euros at the beginning of the year and a full 38 euros a year ago.

Asia Become Key U.S. Customers

But it’s not all doom and gloom for U.S. gas producers, with Asia picking up the slack left by Europe.

Asia's imports of U.S. LNG climbed to 1.34 million metric tons in June, up from 1.21 million in May, the most since February. Indeed, Asia are now the U.S. biggest LNG customers, a position Europe held last year when it purchased as much as 65% of U.S. output.

Currently, Sabine Pass has six fully operational liquefaction units ?trains,?each capable of producing~5 mtpa of LNG for an aggregate nominal production capacity of 30 mtpa. Cheniere processes more than 4.7 billion cubic feet per day of natural gas into LNG. Sabine Pass has multiple pipeline connections to interstate and intrastate pipelines, and is located less than four nautical miles from the Gulf of Mexico thus providing easy access to seafaring vessels.

Previously, Cheniere entered another long-term liquefied natural gas sale and purchase agreement with Norway’s national oil company Equinor ASA (NYSE:EQNR) that will see Equinor purchase 1.75M metric tons/year of LNG on a free-on-board basis for a purchase price indexed to the Henry Hub price, for a 15-year term.