据油价网2023年7月24日报道，由于石油需求创新高和供应减少将导致市场出现巨大的供应缺口，油价到今年年底将从目前的每桶80美元升至每桶86美元。
高盛投资银行石油研究主管Daan Struyven周一对CNBC的“亚洲财经谈 Squawk Box Asia ”节目表示，由于需求达到历史新高，我们预计下半年市场将出现相当大的缺口，第三季度缺口将接近200万桶/天。
虽然今年夏天的石油需求将创下历史新高，但供应正在萎缩。欧佩克+减产和出口以及美国原油产量增长放缓也将在今年第三季度的巨额赤字中发挥作用。
高盛投资银行Struyve表示，我们预计美国原油供应增长将大幅放缓，从现在开始，每天的连续放缓速度不少于200桶。
根据贝克休斯公司7月21日发布的数据，上周美国的在用钻机总数下降到669部。今年到目前为止，贝克休斯公司估计美国在用钻机数减少了100多部。上周的在用钻机数量也比2019年初大流行之前的在用钻机数量减少了406部。
同样在上周，油田服务巨头哈里伯顿公司和贝克休斯公司都表示，北美市场的钻井需求走软。
与此同时，已经有证据表明欧佩克+的原油供应量在减少。
沙特阿拉伯的原油出口量也开始下降，5月份降至700万桶/天以下，这是几个月来的第一次。由于沙特阿拉伯在7月和8月将原油日产量再削减100万桶，全球最大出口国的原油出口量可能进一步下降。
李峻 译自 油价网
原文如下：
Goldman Sachs Sees Oil Prices Rising On Record Demand
Oil prices are set to rise to $86 per barrel at year-end, from $80 now, as record-high oil demand and lowered supply will lead to a large market deficit.
“We expect pretty sizable deficits in the second half with deficits of almost 2 million barrels per day in the third quarter as demand reaches an all-time high,” Daan Struyven, head of oil research at Goldman Sachs, told CNBC’s “Squawk Box Asia” program on Monday.
While demand is set for a record high this summer, supply is shrinking. The production and export cuts from OPEC+ and the slowdown in U.S. oil production growth will also play a part in large deficits in the third quarter this year.
According to Goldman’s Struyven, “We expect U.S. crude supply growth to slow down pretty significantly to a sequential pace of just 200 barrels per day from here.”
The total rig U.S. count fell to 669 last week, according to Baker Hughes data on Friday. So far this year, Baker Hughes has estimated a loss of more than 100 active drilling rigs. Last week’s count is also 406 fewer rigs than the rig count at the beginning of 2019, prior to the pandemic.
Also last week, oilfield services giants Halliburton and Baker Hughes both signaled softer demand for drilling on the North American market.
At the same time, there is already evidence of lower supply from OPEC+.
Saudi Arabia’s crude oil exports have also started to decline, to below 7 million bpd in May, for the first time in many months. Crude shipments out of the world’s top exporter could further decline as Saudi Arabia is now cutting its production by 1 million bpd in July and August.
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