美国和卡塔尔处在全球液化天然气供应增长最前沿

伍德麦肯兹：全球液化天然气需求的长期前景看涨

新的液化天然气供应——尤其是来自卡塔尔和美国的液化天然气供应——将在2025—2026年进入市场

即使在对成本通胀的担忧中，美国液化天然气项目的开发商今年仍将批准历史最高的出口产能

据油价网2023年7月20日报道，作为液化天然气出口国，美国和卡塔尔是两个遥遥领先的领跑者，在未来20年里，这两个国家最有可能抓住全球对额外供应能力的需求。

这是伍德麦肯兹的估计，目前全球最大的两个液化天然气出口国丰富的低成本天然气资源是其出口能力增长的关键因素。

此外，伍德麦肯兹表示，美国和卡塔尔还拥有具有竞争力的价格和“精明的商业合作伙伴关系”，到2040年前，这两个国家所占的液化天然气市场份额将超过60%。目前，这两个液化天然气出口巨头已经占据了全球供应量的40%。据这家咨询公司称，美国和卡塔尔，将需要关注三个关键因素，以便处于下一波液化天然气供应增长的最前沿。这些措施包括控制成本，努力减少液化天然气项目的碳排放，并押注亚洲液化天然气需求的持续增长。

液化天然气需求前景看涨

伍德麦肯兹的天然气和液化天然气专家Massimo Di-Odoardo、Giles Farrer和Dulles Wang表示，全球液化天然气需求的长期前景是看涨的。到21世纪30年代中期，全球将需要每年额外1亿吨的液化天然气产能来满足需求增长。与目前的全球液化天然气供应相比，这一数字增加25%，而且已经获得批准。

伍德麦肯兹的专家表示，从长期来看，亚洲将成为液化天然气需求增长的推动力，尽管欧洲目前急于获得液化天然气，以取代进口管道天然气，甚至签订长期合同。在爆发地缘政治冲突之前，这种长期合同在欧洲是不受欢迎的。

伍德麦肯兹的分析师们表示：“欧洲的政策重心从天然气的转向限制了2030年后液化天然气供应商的上行空间。”“此后，亚洲市场将成为关键，因为亚洲地区的发展中经济体将更加依赖天然气，同时努力摆脱煤炭。”

今年早些时候，全球最大的液化天然气贸易商壳牌公司表示，欧洲对液化天然气的需求大幅增加，将在短期内加剧与亚洲的竞争，并在长期内主导液化天然气贸易。

壳牌公司表示，新的液化天然气供应——尤其是来自卡塔尔和美国的液化天然气供应——将在2025年至2026年进入市场，并在2040年之前看涨这种燃料。壳牌公司指出，到2030年前，大约80%的新增液化天然气供应能力将来自这两个主要液化天然气出口国。

然而，这家液化天然气超级巨头警告称，如果没有新的投资来增加供应，另一个供需缺口可能会在21世纪20年代末出现。

下一波液化天然气供应热潮的成本和劳动力挑战

随着利率和供应链成本的飙升，液化天然气开发商将需要限制项目开发和执行中的成本膨胀。伍德麦肯兹表示，能够做到这一点的液化天然气开发商将更有能力抓住全球液化天然气需求增长的机会。

贝克特尔能源公司全球业务部门总裁Paul Marsden7月早些时候曾对路透社记者表示，为下一波美国液化天然气出口设施招聘和留住建筑工人和运营商可能是一项挑战，并会提高项目成本。贝克特尔能源公司是该行业最大的承包商之一。

劳动力成本和工作安排问题可能会给美国液化天然气项目的繁荣带来阻力，为了确保长期买家和稳定融资，这些项目已经面临供应链成本通胀和竞争加剧。尽管液化天然气需求激增，美国天然气储量丰富，但由于成本飙升，融资因利率上升而变得更加复杂，美国的下一波液化天然气出口热潮可能会停滞。

然而，即使在对成本通胀的担忧中，美国液化天然气项目的开发商今年仍将批准历史最高的液化天然气出口能力。

就在不久前，NextDecade公司在获得184亿美元的融资后，对得克萨斯州新液化天然气设施的第一阶段做出了最终投资决定。里奥格兰德液化天然气项目的第一阶段将由三条液化生产线组成，第一阶段已经获得了包括壳牌公司、埃克森美孚公司、道达尔能源公司、Engie、几家亚洲能源公司、葡萄牙Galp和日本伊藤忠商事株式会社在内买家的长期承购承诺。

近几个月来，美国开发商签订了一系列长期液化天然气合同，其中包括来自欧洲买家的长期合同。在欧洲，能源安全已成为最引人注目的问题，而对进口天然气排放的担忧则成为焦点。

尽管如此，分析师们表示，未来几年，具有二氧化碳捕集功能的低碳液化天然气可能会吸引更多买家。

伍德麦肯兹的专家指出：“随着对供应安全的担忧逐渐消退，买家和政府正在重新关注降低二氧化碳排放。行业必须抓住这一机遇：通过能源转型，减少上游、液化和航运排放将延长液化天然气需求。”

NextDecade的里奥格兰德液化天然气项目和卡塔尔的大规模扩建项目(世界上最大的液化天然气项目)都采用了二氧化碳减排技术。里奥格兰德液化天然气项目将有一个计划中的碳捕获和封存项目，它将低碳密集型液化天然气推向全球市场。

卡塔尔庞大的液化天然气扩张计划还包括二氧化碳封存项目。卡塔尔能源事务国务部长兼卡塔尔能源公司总裁兼首席执行官萨阿德·卡阿比日前表示，“卡塔尔的液化天然气碳强度可能是世界上最低的”。

卡阿比说，“到2029年前，当我们所有的项目都启动并运行时，所有新进入全球市场的液化天然气中有40%将来自卡塔尔能源公司”。

李峻 译自 油价网

原文如下：

U.S. and Qatar At The Forefront Of Global LNG Supply Growth

·     WoodMac: The long-term outlook on global LNG demand is bullish.

·     New supply – especially from Qatar and the United States – is set to hit the market in 2025-2026.

·     Even amid concerns about cost inflation, developers of LNG projects in the United States are set to approve a record-high volume of export capacity this year.

The United States and Qatar are frontrunners – by a mile – as the LNG exporters best positioned to capture the global demand for additional supply capacity over the next two decades.  

That’s the estimate by Wood Mackenzie, which sees the abundant, low-cost natural gas resources in the world’s current top two LNG exporters as the key factor for their export capacity growth.  

In addition, the U.S. and Qatar also have competitive pricing and “astute commercial partnering,” which could secure them a combined market share exceeding 60% by 2040, WoodMac says. At present, the two LNG export giants already hold 40% of global supply between them. The U.S. and Qatar, alongside other LNG developing and exporting countries, will need to focus on three key factors to be at the forefront of the next wave of LNG supply, according to the energy consultancy. These are keeping costs in check, working to reduce emissions from LNG projects, and betting on Asia for continued growth in LNG demand. 

LNG Demand Outlook Is Bullish

The long-term outlook on global LNG demand is bullish, according to WoodMac’s gas and LNG experts Massimo Di-Odoardo, Giles Farrer, and Dulles Wang. Additional 100 million metric tonnes per annum (mmtpa) of capacity will be required to meet demand growth by the mid-2030s. This is a 25% increase compared to current global LNG supply and on top of the supply that has already been sanctioned.  

Asia will be the driving force of demand in the long term, WoodMac’s experts say, despite the current European rush to secure LNG to replace imported gas, even with long-term contracts, which were frowned upon in Europe until the war. 

“Europe’s policy pivot away from gas limits upside for LNG suppliers beyond 2030. Thereafter, it’s all about Asia as the region’s developing economies lean more heavily on gas while striving to move away from coal,” Wood Mackenzie’s analysts say. 

Earlier this year, Shell, the world’s largest LNG trader, said that the significantly higher demand for liquefied natural gas in Europe is set to intensify competition with Asia in the short term and to dominate LNG trade in the longer term. 

New supply – especially from Qatar and the United States – is set to hit the market in 2025-2026, Shell said in a bullish outlook on the fuel through 2040. Around 80% of new LNG supply by 2030 will come from those two major LNG exporters, Shell noted. 

However, the supermajor warned that another supply-demand gap could be looming in the late 2020s without new investment in additional supply.  

Cost And Labor Challenges To The Next LNG Supply Boom  

With interest rates and supply-chain costs surging, LNG developers will need to limit cost inflation in project development and execution. The LNG developers who manage to do it will be better positioned to capture the demand growth opportunity, Wood Mackenzie says. 

Hiring and keeping construction workers and operators for the next wave of U.S. LNG export facilities could be a challenge and raise the costs of the projects, Paul Marsden, president of the Energy global business unit at one of the top contractors in the industry, Bechtel, told Reuters earlier this month. 

Labor costs and work scheduling issues could add headwinds to the boom of U.S. LNG projects, which have already faced supply-chain cost inflation and increased competition to secure long-term buyers and financing. Despite the surge in LNG demand and the abundance of natural gas in the United States, America’s next LNG export boom could stall as costs have surged and financing has become more complicated with the higher interest rates. 

However, even amid concerns about cost inflation, developers of LNG projects in the United States are set to approve a record-high volume of export capacity this year.

Just last week, NextDecade took the final investment decision for the first phase of a new LNG facility in Texas after it secured $18.4 billion in funding. The first phase of the Rio Grande LNG will consist of three liquefaction trains, with Phase 1 having already secured long-term offtake commitments from buyers including Shell, Exxon, TotalEnergies, Engie, and several Asian energy companies, as well as Portugal’s Galp, and Japan’s Itochu Corporation. 

Long-term LNG contracting for the U.S. developers has seen a flurry of deals in recent months, including from buyers in Europe, where energy security has taken center stage at the expense of concerns about emissions from natural gas imports. 

Still, lower-carbon LNG with CO2 capture will likely attract more buyers in the coming years, analysts say. 

WoodMac’s experts note, “As security of supply concerns fade, buyers and governments are refocusing on lowering CO2 emissions. The industry must seize this opportunity: reducing upstream, liquefaction and shipping emissions will prolong LNG demand through the energy transition.”

Both NextDecade’s Rio Grande LNG and Qatar’s massive expansion, the world’s largest LNG project, feature CO2 emission-reduction technologies. The Rio Grande LNG project will have a planned carbon capture and sequestration project to bring lower-carbon-intensive LNG to global markets. 

Qatar’s huge LNG expansion plans also feature CO2 sequestration projects. Saad Sherida Al-Kaabi, the Minister of State for Energy Affairs and QatarEnergy’s President and CEO, said last week that “Qatar’s LNG carbon intensity is probably the lowest in the world.”

According to Al-Kaabi, “40% of all the new LNG that will come to the market by 2029, when all our projects are up and running, is going to be from QatarEnergy.”