据烃加工网7月24日报道，预计美国炼油利润将从去年的历史最高水平下滑，但仍将保持强劲，因国内炼油厂停产和外国竞争加剧带来挑战。
在疫情时期工厂关闭和地缘政治冲突提振利润率后，炼油商经历了一波有利的定价和强劲的需求。经济活动放缓和全球炼油产能增加，已使市场从去年的高点回落。
TD Cowen分析师Jason Gabelman表示，收入绝不会疲软，但应该更为正常。
欧佩克+第二季度的石油减产使美国炼油商从市场上廉价购买重质、含硫的原油，以从燃料销售中获得更高的利润。
今年早些时候，由于冬季馏分油短缺，炼油商能够以比柴油高得多的价格出售航空燃油，这种情况也有所缓解。Gabelman表示，原油价差和航空燃油对柴油的溢价回到了接近历史水平的水平。
马拉松石油公司(Marathon)和Phillips 66等炼油厂在得克萨斯州和新泽西州的主要设施的大型燃料生产装置也存在问题，使它们无法充分实现潜在利润。
根据炼油情报公司IIR Energy的数据显示，2023年6月，计划外停产平均接近55万桶/天，而2022年6月接近29万桶/天。
按产能计算为美国第二大炼油商Valero Energy周四将公布业绩，根据Refinitiv收集的17位分析师的平均预估，该公司每股获利将下滑逾一半至5.07美元，上年同期为11.36美元。
根据Refinitiv的数据显示，美国最大的炼油商马拉松石油公司预计每股利润为4.60美元，而一年前为10.61美元，而Phillips 66的每股利润为3.58美元，而一年前为6.77美元。两家公司都计划于8月初公布财报。
本月早些时候，埃克森美孚表示，炼油利润率也使其汽油和柴油业务的经营业绩减少了21亿美元。
根据Refinitiv的数据显示，未来炼油商将受益于持续的高裂解价差，该价差目前徘徊在每桶37.50美元左右。裂解价差是炼油利润率的一个指标。
但Gabelman表示，由于亚洲和中东的新炼油产能投产，以及卡车和货运市场放缓导致柴油需求疲软，炼油商可能面临挑战。并补充道，“对前景没有太多信心”。
郝芬 译自 烃加工网
原文如下：
US. fuel maker profits to fall from last year's records
U.S. refining profits are expected to fall from last year's records but remain strong as domestic refining outages and increased foreign competition pose challenges.
Refiners have come off a wave of favorable pricing and strong demand after pandemic-era plant closings and the war boosted margins. Slowing economic activity and an increase in global refining capacity has brought the market down from last year's highs.
"Earnings will not be weak by any stretch, but should be more normal," said TD Cowen analyst Jason Gabelman.
Oil production cuts from OPEC+ in the second quarter took heavy, sour barrels from the market that US refiners buy cheaply to make a higher profit off fuel sales.
A winter shortage of distillate fuels that allowed refiners to fetch a much higher price for jet fuel compared with diesel earlier in the year has also eased. Crude differentials and jet premiums to diesel are back near historical levels, Gabelman said.
Refiners such as Marathon and Phillips 66 also had problems with large fuel producing units in major facilities in Texas and New Jersey, preventing them from fully realizing potential profits.
Unplanned outages averaged near 550,000 bpd in June, 2023, compared to near 290,000 bpd in June 2022, according to data from refining intelligence firm IIR Energy.
Valero Energy, the second-largest U.S. refiner by capacity, kicks off earnings on Thursday with per share profit expected to fall by more than half at $5.07, based on the mean estimate of 17 analysts compiled by Refinitiv, compared to a whopping $11.36 per share a year ago.
Top U.S. refiner by volume Marathon Petroleum is forecast to show a per share profit of $4.60 compared to $10.61 a year ago, while Phillips 66 could deliver a $3.58 per share, compared to $6.77 a year ago, according to Refinitiv. Both are scheduled to report in early August.
Earlier this month, Exxon signaled that refining margins also reduced operating results at its gasoline and diesel business by $2.1 B.
Going forward, refiners should benefit from a sustained, high crack spread - a proxy for refining margins - which is hovering around $37.50 per barrel, Refinitiv data showed.
But refiners could face challenges with new refining capacity coming online in Asia and the Middle East and weaker demand for diesel due to slowing in trucking and freight markets, Gabelman said.
"There's not a lot of conviction in the outlook," he added.
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