据彭博社7月25日报道，据彭博新能源财经（BNEF）的一份报告显示，日本实现2030年减排和实现中期净零排放目标的最经济方式是部署成熟的清洁技术，如风能、太阳能发电和电动汽车。
该分析与日本制定的转型路径形成对比，该路径可能会延长燃煤和燃气发电设施的使用寿命，通过氨和氢气混合燃烧来捕获排放物。
日本的气候转型政策使其成为七国集团(G7)中的异类，其他国家大多正在转向清洁能源，远离产生二氧化碳和甲烷排放的化石燃料，这些排放导致地球变暖。彭博和绿色金融系统网络编制的数据显示，与2030年实现碳减排和2050年实现净零排放所需的努力相比，日本当前的减排轨迹偏离得最远。
根据BNEF周二发布的《日本新能源展望》报告，日本在2010年至2022年间在化石燃料进口上花费了1.8万亿美元，相当于该国年均GDP的3%以上。
分析师David Kang在报告中表示：“如果日本可以将部分支出转向成熟的清洁技术，如太阳能、风能和电动汽车的推广，将会创造更多国内经济机会，同时减少排放并加强能源安全。”
资源匮乏的日本今年主办了七国集团峰会，并一再强调实现能源安全和2050年净零排放的需要。这不仅包括可再生能源，还包括天然气等化石燃料以及尚未大规模推广的技术，包括碳捕获、储存和利用，以及在火力发电厂实现氨和氢气的混合燃烧。
该国认为，发展中国家也需要多样化的途径来实现碳排放减少目标。
解锁日本可再生能源潜力的关键是增加国家电网投资，使风能和太阳能开发商更容易向最需要的地方供应清洁电力。根据BNEF的报告，能够将东京和大阪等需求中心与北海道附近预计进行的海上风电项目或九州南部地区的太阳能开发等可再生能源开发连接起来，对于最大程度地发挥该国可再生能源潜力至关重要。
根据BNEF绘制的过渡情景，日本需要在2022年至2050年间进行4893亿美元的电网投资，以充分整合足够的风能、太阳能和电池来实现发电行业的脱碳。目前政府对于区域间输电网投资的估计在中期可能在270亿美元至405亿美元之间。
胡耀东 译自 钻井地带
原文如下：
Clean Tech Offers Cheapest Net Zero Path for Japan
The cheapest way for Japan to meet its 2030 emissions reduction and mid-century net zero goals is to deploy mature, clean technologies like wind and solar generation, and electric vehicles, according to a report from BloombergNEF.
The analysis stands in contrast to the transition pathway the country has staked out that may extend the life of its coal and gas-fired generation through 2050 by co-firing facilities with ammonia and hydrogen and capturing the emissions.
Japan’s climate transition policies have made it an outlier among its Group of Seven peers, who are mostly pivoting toward clean energy and away from fossil fuels that generate the carbon dioxide and methane releases warming the planet. Its current emissions-reduction trajectory strays the furthest from what’s needed by 2030 to reach net zero by 2050, according to data compiled by Bloomberg and the Network for Greening the Financial System.
Japan spent $1.8 trillion on fossil fuel imports over 2010-2022, which is equivalent to an annual average spending of more than 3% of GDP, according to BNEF’s New Energy Outlook Japan report released Tuesday.
“If Japan can redirect some of this expenditure toward deployment of mature clean technologies such as solar, wind and electric vehicles, it would create more domestic economic opportunities while reducing emissions and strengthening its energy security,” analyst David Kang said in the report.
Resource-poor Japan, which hosted the G-7 summit this year, has repeatedly emphasized the need for a variety of options to achieve energy security and net zero by 2050. That includes not only renewables, but fossil fuels like natural gas and technologies that have yet to be scaled up including carbon capture, storage and utilization, as well as co-firing ammonia and hydrogen in thermal power plants.
The country has argued that developing nations too need a diverse pathway to reach carbon emission reduction targets.
Key to unlocking Japan’s renewables potential is boosting the nation’s grid investment to make it easier for wind and solar developers to supply clean electrons where they are needed most, according to BNEF. Being able to connect demand centers like Tokyo and Osaka to renewable development like offshore wind installations expected near the northern island of Hokkaido or solar development in the southern region of Kyushu is crucial to maximizing the country’s renewables potential.
In the transition scenario mapped by out BNEF, Japan needs $489.3 billion in grid investment between 2022 and 2050 to fully integrate enough wind, solar and batteries to decarbonize its power generation sector. The current government’s estimate for interregional transmission grid investment is estimated at between $27 billion and $40.5 billion through mid-century.
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