非洲绿色能源跃升

撒哈拉以南非洲的人口预计到2050年将翻倍，导致未来十年内能源需求预计增加三分之一，并迫使电力发电能力到2065年实现10倍增长

非洲拥有丰富资源，如天然气、阳光、风能和稀有矿物，为可再生能源增长创造了巨大潜力

挑战在于确保非洲的可再生能源生产能力能否满足其迫切的能源需求，并实现脱碳目标

据油价网7月29日报道，非洲电气化将成为全球清洁能源转型中最重要的挑战和有前途的经济机遇之一。撒哈拉以南非洲的人口是世界上增长最快的，预计到2050年将翻倍。为了让读者有个概念，到中世纪，地球上四分之一的人口将在撒哈拉以南非洲地区。考虑到非洲人口在全球舞台上的重要性，以及将这些人连接到清洁可靠能源的需求，非洲在全球范围内对气候目标构成重大挑战。

随着撒哈拉以南非洲地区的增长和工业化，非洲能源需求预计未来十年将增加三分之一。满足这一需求将需要到2065年实现电力发电能力的10倍增长。问题是，为了符合脱碳的要求，非洲必须“跨越式发展”，直接采用最先进（且相对昂贵）的绿色技术，而不是像其他贫困国家的经济发展通常经历的阶段。

如今，非洲大陆仍有6亿人缺乏能源供应。然而，虽然大多数经济体在发展经济时有幸处于可以无限制燃烧化石燃料的时代，非洲面临的却是直接采用尖端（且相对昂贵）的绿色技术，这在历史上几乎是前所未有的必要性。

讽刺的是，尽管非洲目前是全球能源贫困最为集中的地区之一，但它也是可再生能源产能增长潜力最大的市场之一。该大陆拥有极为丰富的天然气资源（被视为迈向更洁净能源的跳板），以及充沛的太阳能、风能和极为抢手的锂、钴等稀有土壤矿物，这些是光伏太阳能电池板、锂离子电池、电动汽车和可再生能源储存等关键组件。

外国投资者已经涌入非洲，以开发能源资源以确保自身的能源安全。欧洲国家也越来越多地进入北非地区，在撒哈拉沙漠建设大规模太阳能电站。现在，在几十年的衰退后，撒哈拉以南非洲地区的制造业正在呈上升趋势，而非洲制造的太阳能电池板已经与其他地区制造的太阳能电池板在成本上开始竞争。

尽管非洲几乎可以确定将成为全球能源市场的下一个热点，但并不能保证这种新发现的可再生能源产能可以满足非洲自身能源电网的巨大和紧迫需求。相反，可再生能源供应链正在被外国国家建立，以满足这些国家的需求。这是一个两难的境地。非洲迫切需要通过这些合同所提供的资金，但同时也迫切需要尽可能获得所有能源。毕竟，非洲大陆一半的人口缺乏可靠的能源供应，这是发展的基本障碍。

此外，这些可再生能源资源对于非洲实现脱碳目标和“跨越式”发展脱离化石燃料是绝对必要的，这对整个地球都是净收益。但问题再次出在资金上。富裕国家有钱发展这些供应链（以满足自身需求），但对于非洲来说，情况就不同了。发表在《科学报告》杂志上的最新研究估计，要实现非洲用可再生能源供电的最低投资成本将达到2980亿美元。

胡耀东 译自 油价网

原文如下：

Africa's Green Energy Leapfrog

Sub-Saharan Africa's population is expected to double by 2050, leading to a predicted increase in energy demand by a third over the next decade and necessitating a ten-fold increase in power generation capacity by 2065.

Africa has abundant resources such as natural gas, sunshine, wind, and rare Earth minerals, creating significant potential for renewable energy growth.

The challenge lies in ensuring that Africa's renewable energy production capacity is harnessed to serve its own urgent energy needs, as well as achieving decarbonization goals.

Electrifying Africa is going to be one of the most significant challenges (and promising economic opportunities) of the global clean energy transition. The population of sub-Saharan Africa is the fastest growing in the world, expected to double by 2050. To put that in perspective, by midcentury one in four people on the planet will be in sub-Saharan Africa. Considering the significance of the African population on the global stage, and the need to connect those people to clean and reliable energy, the continent poses a significant challenge for climate goals on a global scale.

As sub-Saharan Africa grows and industrializes, African energy demand is expected to increase by a third over the next decade. Meeting this demand will require a ten-fold increase in power generation capacity by 2065. The problem is that in order to comply with decarbonization imperatives, Africa has to “leapfrog” over what is normally the next phase of development in a poor nation’s economic journey. Today, 600 million people across the African continent still lack access to energy. But while most economies had the good fortune of developing their economies in an era where there was no pushback for burning as many fossil fuels as suited them, African leaders are facing the necessary and virtually unprecedented necessity of skipping straight to cutting-edge (and comparatively expensive) green technologies.

The irony is that while Africa represents the greatest concentration of energy poverty in the world today, it also represents one of the most significant markets for renewable energy production growth potential. The continent is extremely rich in natural gas (considered to be a stepping stone away from dirtier fossil fuels like coal and oil), as well as abundant sunshine, wind, and highly sought-after rare Earth minerals such as lithium and cobalt which are essential components of renewable technologies including photovoltaic solar panels and lithium-ion batteries for electric vehicles and renewable energy storage.

Foreign investors are already flooding Africa in order to develop energy resources in order to shore up their own energy security. European countries are increasingly pushing into Northern Africa to build mass-scale solar farms in the Sahara Desert. Now, after decades of decline, manufacturing in sub-Saharan Africa is on an upward trend, and solar panels built in Africa are already cost-competitive with those built in other countries.

While Africa is all but guaranteed to be the next big thing in global energy markets, however, there is no guarantee that this newfound renewable energy production capacity will meet the enormous and urgent demand of Africa’s own energy grids. Instead, renewable energy supply chains are being established by foreign countries in order to serve the needs of those foreign countries. It’s a dilemma. Africa direly needs the money offered through such contracts, but it also desperately needs all of the energy it can get. After all, half of the continent’s population lacks reliable access to energy – a fundamental barrier to development.

Furthermore, those renewable energy resources are an absolutely necessary piece of Africa’s ability to reach decarbonization goals and “leapfrog” fossil fuels – which is a net gain for the entire planet. But the issue, once again, is money. Rich countries have the money to develop those supply chains (for their own needs) – but for African, it’s another story. A recent study published in the journal Scientific Reports calculates that the cheapest investment cost from all case scenarios that would achieve a renewable energy-powered grid in Africa would be $298 billion.