沙特阿拉伯原油的亚洲买家预计，9月份阿拉伯轻质原油的官方售价将每桶上涨0.45美元，比迪拜/阿曼基准原油价格每桶高出3.65美元
沙特阿拉伯自愿减产，再加上安哥拉、尼日利亚等面临的原油生产问题，导致市场趋紧
一些分析人士认为，由于炼油商竞相获取原油，沙特阿拉伯或将在9月份开始取消每天100万桶原油的减产
据油价网2023年8月1日报道，接受路透社调查的炼油行业消息人士称，沙特阿拉伯可能连续第三个月提高其9月份的原油价格。
根据这些消息来源，沙特阿拉伯原油的亚洲买家可能会看到9月份每桶阿拉伯轻质原油的价格比8月份上涨0.45美元，比迪拜/阿曼基准原油价格每桶高出3.65美元，这是今年年初以来的最高水平。
一位路透社消息人士称：“一直很难预测沙特阿拉伯的原油产量。但每天自愿额外削减100万桶原油产量的延期被视为9月价格评估的基准。”
沙特阿拉伯7月份开始的自愿减产已经在挤压欧佩克的原油供应。路透社的另一项调查显示，再加上安哥拉、尼日利亚等面临的原油产量问题，这些减产导致欧佩克组织内7月份原油日产量减少84万桶。
至于未来走势，分析师们的看法存在分歧。一些人，如炼油行业的匿名消息人士认为沙特阿拉伯将从8月份开始推迟减产。其他一些人，比如7月份接受彭博社调查的一个团体，认为沙特阿拉伯或将根据市场走势相机行事。
咨询公司FGE短期全球石油服务主管詹姆斯·戴维斯对彭博社表示：“有充分的证据表明沙特阿拉伯将在9月份开始取消减产。市场迫切需要这些原油，炼油商正在争相获得这些原油。”
调查中的受访者预测，沙特阿拉伯9月份可能会将每天减产幅度缩减25万至50万桶。
路透社在其报道中指出，沙特阿拉伯的旗舰混合油阿拉伯轻质原油最近一直处于现货溢价状态，表明由于自愿减产，市场需求超过了可用供应。
重质等级原油的供应也受到限制，导致分析师预计这些等级原油的价格也会上涨。由于供应充足，沙特阿拉伯唯一可能不会涨价的原油是阿拉伯超轻质原油。
李峻 译自 油价网
原文如下：
Oil Buyers Brace For Saudi Arabia To Boost Prices once Again
· Asian buyers of Saudi crude oil expect September prices from Arab Light to rise by $0.45 per barrel to reach a $3.65 premium over the Dubai/Oman benchmarks.
· Saudi Arabia’s voluntary production cut combined with production problems in Angola, Nigeria, and Libya is tightening markets.
· Some analysts believe Saudi Arabia will start to unwind its 1 million bpd production cuts in September as refiners race to secure barrels.
Saudi Arabia may raise the price of its crude for the third month in a row for September cargos, according to sources from the refining industry surveyed by Reuters.
Per those sources, Asian buyers of Saudi crude could see September prices for Arab Light rise by $0.45 per barrel from August’s level, reaching a $3.65 premium over the Dubai/Oman benchmarks—the highest since the start of the year.
"It's always hard to make prediction on Saudi's OSPs. But the rollover of the 1 million bpd cut is seen as a baseline in September price assessments," one of the Reuters sources said.
The voluntary production cuts that Saudi Arabia began in July are already squeezing supply of oil from OPEC. Combined with production problems in Angola, Nigeria,the cuts contributed to an 840,000-bpd decline in OPEC’s total for July, according to another Reuters survey.
As for going forward, opinions among analysts diverge. Some, like the unnamed source from the refining industry, believe Saudi Arabia will roll the cuts over from August. Others, such as a group surveyed by Bloomberg last month, believe the Saudis may start rolling these back.
“There’s ample evidence for Saudi Arabia to start unwinding the cuts in September. The market is screaming out for these barrels, and refiners are scrambling to get hold of them,” James Davis, director of short-term global oil services at FGE, told Bloomberg.
The respondents in the survey forecast Riyadh could reduce the cuts by between 250,000 and 500,000 barrels daily in September.
Arab Light, the flagship Saudi oil blend, has been trading in a backwardation recently, Reuters noted in its report, suggesting that demand was exceeding available supply, thanks to the voluntary cuts.
The supply of heavier grades has also been constrained leading analysts to expect price hikes in those, too. The only Saudi crude that may see no change in prices is Arab Extra Light due to ample supply.
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