今年上半年石油勘探投资增加 但发现量降至新低

今年上半年，全球范围内勘探公司先后发现了26亿桶油当量的油气储量

勘探和生产(E&P)行业正处于转型时期，许多勘探公司都更加谨慎，并将战略转向更有利可图、地质条件更好的地区

在寻找新资源的过程中，勘探公司优先考虑的是海上部分

据油价网2023年8月1日报道，常规油气勘探支出正在反弹，今年预计将超过500亿美元，为2019年以来的最高水平，但运营商仍在等待他们所希望的结果。挪威著名能源研究和商业情报公司雷斯塔能源公司（Rystad）的研究显示，尽管今年上半年全球石油勘探投资不断增加，但发现量却降至新低。

雷斯塔能源估计显示，在今年上半年，勘探公司先后发现了26亿桶油当量的油气储量，比去年上半年发现的45亿桶油当量减少了42%。与去年上半年的80个新发现相比，今年上半年只有55个新发现。这意味着今年的平均发现量为4700万桶油当量，低于去年同期的5600万桶油当量。

勘探和生产(E&P)行业正处于转型时期，许多勘探公司都更加谨慎，并将战略转向更有利可图、地质条件更好的地区。这种战略转变和几口关键高潜力井的失败导致了油气产量的急剧下降。

在寻找新资源的过程中，勘探公司正在优先考虑海上部分，试图利用未开发或前沿地区，通过高风险、高成本的海上开发来释放新的油气产量。今年迄今为止，海上油气行业占勘探总支出的95%左右，但仅占发现量的三分之二左右。

雷斯塔能源上游研究副总裁Aatisha Mahajan表示：“上游公司正面临一段不确定时期。他们渴望利用对化石燃料日益增长的需求，寻找更多的资源，但最近的结果却乏善可陈。如果勘探作业在今年剩余时间内继续取得令人印象深刻的成果，那么今年可能会因为错误的原因而突破历史最高水平。”

资源在哪里?  

圭亚那斯塔布鲁克海上区块产量的持续增长意味着这个加勒比海国家在发现量方面处于领先地位，今年发现量预计将达到6.03亿桶油当量。土耳其以3.8亿桶油当量的发现量位居第二，尼日利亚以2.96亿桶油当量的发现量位居第三，纳米比亚以2.87亿桶油当量的发现量位居第四，随着对发现量的深入了解，这些估值数据有可能增加。

海上发现相对均匀地分布在超深水、深水和大陆架上。然而，预计今年剩余时间的勘探和生产活动将增加，特别是在超深水市场，预计与去年相比新开钻井数量将增加27%。

失败的高影响力井

研究结果表明，今年全球预计将钻取31口高影响力井，这些高影响力井是根据项目的重要性和生产潜力使用雷斯塔的分级系统指定的。到目前为止，今年上半年全球已经完成了13口高影响力井，6口高影响力井正在钻进中，12口高影响力井仍在筹备中。在已完钻的13口高影响力井中，只有4口高影响力井钻遇到了油气，成功率仅为31%。3口高影响力井的勘探结果尚未公布，其余6口高影响力井未发现任何油气储量。这些失败的高影响力井严重影响发现的总资源量，并在很大程度上导致新发现量的减少。

石油巨头继续推动支出

六大石油巨头——埃克森美孚公司、英国石油公司、壳牌公司、道达尔能源公司、埃尼公司和雪佛龙公司——继续在全球油气勘探领域发挥着关键作用，在勘探支出和全球常规探明储量中占有显著份额。这六大石油巨头预计今年将在勘探上花费大约70亿美元，比去年高出约10%。

全球油气勘探活动很可能会在今年下半年获得动力，计划钻取至关重要的勘探井。预测显示，在未来几个月，石油巨头的勘探支出将占全球勘探总支出的14%左右，这凸显了石油巨头在勘探转向海上领域，越来越关注前沿地区的环境中的相对重要性。这些未充分开发或未开发的地区拥有一些技术上最具前景却尚未钻探的远景构造，近几年来在这些地区的勘探中发挥着至关重要作用。

石油巨头的支出和勘探开发活动特征使它们在全球市场上占有一席之地，但国家石油公司(NOC)拥有最广泛的地下资源基础。今年勘探支出的一半以上预计将来自国家石油公司和拥有国际投资组合的国家石油公司。

但今年可能还会有一些成功发现，因为只有30%的预期井已经完成，让今年余下时间的勘探规模显得突出。剩下的56口勘探井中，今年只有23口已开钻或预计将开钻，这意味着大约60%的勘探井可能会被开钻或推迟到2024年开钻。因此，即使在今年该行业被证明不够成功，明年也可能出现反弹。

李峻 译自 油价网

原文如下：

Oil Exploration Grows But Discovered Volumes Fall To New Lows

·     Rystad: in the first half of 2023, explorers found 2.6 billion barrels of oil equivalent.

·     The exploration and production (E&P) industry is in a transitionary period, with many companies exercising increased caution and shifting their strategies to target more profitable and geologically better-understood regions.

·     In the hunt for new resources, exploration companies are prioritizing the offshore sector.

Spending on conventional oil and gas exploration is rebounding and expected to top $50 billion this year, the highest since 2019, but operators are still waiting for the results they had hoped for. Rystad Energy research shows that despite the rising investments, discovered volumes are falling to new lows. 

Our estimates show that in the first half of 2023, explorers found 2.6 billion barrels of oil equivalent (boe), 42% lower than the first half of 2022 total of 4.5 billion boe. Fifty-five discoveries have been made, compared to 80 in the first six months of last year. This means discoveries in 2023 have averaged 47 million boe, lower than the 56 million boe per discovery for the same period in 2022.

The exploration and production (E&P) industry is in a transitionary period, with many companies exercising increased caution and shifting their strategies to target more profitable and geologically better-understood regions. This strategic shift and the failure of several critical high-potential wells are contributing to the precipitous drop. 

In the hunt for new resources, exploration companies are prioritizing the offshore sector, trying to capitalize on underexplored or frontier areas to unlock new volumes through high-risk, higher-cost offshore developments. The offshore industry accounted for about 95% of exploration spending this year to date but only about two-thirds of discovered volumes. 

“Upstream companies are facing a period of uncertainty. They are eager to capitalize on the increased demand for fossil fuels and find additional resources, but recent results have been lackluster. If exploration efforts continue to yield unimpressive results for the remainder of the year, 2023 could be a record-breaker for the wrong reasons,” says Aatisha Mahajan, vice president of upstream research at Rystad Energy.

Where are the resources?

The continued growth of Guyana’s Stabroek offshore block means the Caribbean country leads the way in discovered volumes, with 603 million boe in 2023. Turkey sits second with 380 million boe, Nigeria with 296 million boe and Namibia with 287 million boe, with the potential for these estimates to grow as we better understand the reserves.

Offshore discoveries are spread relatively evenly between ultra-deepwater, deepwater and shelf finds. However, we expect increased activity in the remainder of 2023, especially in the ultra-deepwater market, with projected growth of 27% versus 2022 in terms of spud wells.

Failed high-impact wells

Our research shows that 31 high-impact wells – designated using our tiering system based on the project’s significance and production potential – are expected to be drilled this year. So far, 13 have been completed, six are ongoing and 12 remain in the pipeline. only four of the 13 completed wells encountered hydrocarbons, a measly 31% success rate. The results of three wells are not yet disclosed, while the remaining six failed to find any reserves. These failures significantly impact the total discovered resources and greatly contribute to the falling discoveries.

Majors continue to drive spending

The six majors – ExxonMobil, BP, Shell, TotalEnergies, Eni and Chevron – continue to play a critical role in global exploration, with a prominent share of exploration spending and global conventional discovered volumes. The six companies are expected to spend about $7 billion this year on exploration, about 10% higher than in 2022. 

Exploration activity will likely gain momentum in the second half of 2023, with crucial exploration wells planned to be drilled. Our forecasts show that the majors will contribute about 14% of total global exploration spending in the coming months, highlighting their relative significance in an environment where exploration has pivoted to the offshore sector, with an increased focus on frontier regions. These underexplored or virgin regions hold some of the most technically prospective yet-to-be-drilled prospects, with majors playing a vital role in recent years in exploring these areas.

The spending and activity profiles of the majors position them firmly in the market, but national oil companies (NOC) have the most extensive subsurface resource base at their collective disposal. More than half of the projected exploration spending in 2023 will come from NOCs and NOCs with international portfolios (INOC).

However, there may yet be some success to come this year, as only 30% of anticipated wells have been completed, highlighting the magnitude of the remaining activity. only 23 of the remaining 56 exploration wells are either drilled or are expected to be drilled this year, meaning about 60% are likely to be drilled or postponed until 2024. So, even if 2023 proves unsuccessful, a rebound could be on the cards next year.