据彭博社7月31日报道称，由于有迹象表明市场正在紧缩，石油价格创下一年多来的最大月度涨幅，据估计，就在欧佩克+减产之际，原油需求正以历史最高水平的速度增长。
西得克萨斯中质原油在连续五周上涨后保持在每桶80美元以上，价格升至4月份以来的最高水平。该美国原油基准价格本月上涨了近14%，有望创下2022年1月以来的最大涨幅。这是近二十年来七月份的最佳表现。
高盛集团分析师Daan Struyven和Yulia Zhestkova Grigsby在一份报告中表示，“历史最高水平的高需求和沙特的供应削减已经带来了原油赤字，该报告重申了布伦特原油到12月将达到每桶86美元的预测，市场已经放弃了对经济增长的悲观情绪”。
油价连续上涨意味着纽约原油期货已经抹去了年初以来的跌幅，市场预期美联储(fed)即将结束货币紧缩周期，这也在美元走软之际提振了市场人气。将于本周公布的美国就业数据可能预示着健康的需求前景，而最大的进口国则在加紧实施刺激措施，以提振经济。
欧佩克+关键国家沙特阿拉伯等供应减少改善了原油前景。
随着原油价格突破近期区间，投机者加大了对整个能源综合体的看涨押注。WTI和全球基准布伦特原油的净多头组合已升至三个月来的最高水平。
王佳晶 摘译自 彭博社
原文如下：
Oil Set for Best Month Since Early 2022 as Market Tightens
Oil headed for its biggest monthly gain in more than a year on signs the market is tightening, with estimates that crude demand is running at a record clip just as OPEC+ cuts back production.
West Texas Intermediate held above $80 a barrel after a run of five weekly gains that lifted prices to the highest since April. The US crude benchmark has rallied almost 14% this month, putting it on course for the biggest advance since January 2022. It’s the best performance for July in almost two decades.
“Record high demand and Saudi supply cuts have brought back deficits,” Goldman Sachs Group Inc. analysts including Daan Struyven and Yulia Zhestkova Grigsby said in a note that reaffirmed a forecast for Brent at $86 a barrel by December. “The market has abandoned its growth pessimism.”
Oil’s string of advances mean futures in New York have erased their year-to-date losses, with expectations that the Federal Reserve is close to ending its cycle of monetary tightening also aiding sentiment as the dollar weakens. US employment data due this week is likely to signal a healthy demand outlook, while top importer presses on with stimulus to boost its economy.
A reduction of supply from OPEC+ linchpins Saudi Arabia has improved the outlook for crude. Earlier this month,
Speculators have boosted bullish wagers across the energy complex as crude prices broke out of their recent range. Combined net long positions on WTI and global benchmark Brent have swelled to the highest in three months.
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