在炼油利用率下降和原油基准上涨支持下，馏分油价格飙升

最近几周，汽油和其他馏分燃料价格的上涨速度超过了上游原油基准价格

汽油和其他馏分油价格上涨背后的一个关键问题是，在需求居高不下的情况下，炼油厂利用率却在下降

燃料价格的任何上涨都将受到美联储和其他国家央行的密切关注，因为燃料价格可能对通胀压力产生重大影响

据油价网2023年8月4日报道，最近几周，汽油和其他馏分燃料价格的上涨速度快于上游原油基准价格。由于主要经济体通胀放缓，世界各国央行加息周期似乎接近尾声，能源市场的反弹可能引发担忧。我们将探讨最近汽油和其他馏分油市场价格上涨背后的主要原因，以及这种情况将如何进一步发展。

原油基准价格上涨

当观察馏分油价格的变化时，最重要的驱动因素是上游产品的成本。从4月底到7月初，布伦特原油价格在71美元至79美元的区间内交易了两个多月，自6月最后一周以来一直在上涨，并在7月第一周突破了这个价格区间。在过去的一周里，布伦特原油价格收盘每桶高达85美元，并在8月2日星期三以略高于83美元的价格结算。WTI价格的情况与此类似，该基准价格上周每桶曾短暂攀升至80美元上方，目前仅略低于80美元。

原油价格的上涨源于欧佩克+的减产，更具体地说是沙特阿拉伯等减产。今年6月，沙特阿拉伯宣布将在接下来的一个月每天再减产100万桶。这一减产措施随后延长至8月份，最近有猜测称沙特阿拉伯9月份也将继续减产。与此同时，当沙特阿拉伯在6月份首次宣布自愿减产时，它并没有像许多人预期的那样起到提振油价的作用。然而，随着时间的推移，原油产量枯竭的现实和减产的连续延长最终推动了油价的上涨。

由于油价涨出其交易区间，交易活动加剧了油价上涨。正如路透社的约翰·肯普所指出的那样，由于原油价格上涨，投资者纷纷回补空头头寸，这进一步推动了油价上涨走势。尽管与去年相比，今年的原油市场相当低迷，但许多看涨的投资者认为，7月初的原油价格区间突破将引发乐观情绪，认为原油价格今年可能会回升至每桶90美元以上，甚至更高。

炼油厂利用率下降

汽油和其他馏分油价格上涨背后的另一个关键问题是，在需求居高不下的情况下，炼油厂利用率有所下降。据彭博社报道，今年欧洲的汽油需求恢复得很好，“法国、德国、西班牙和意大利的汽油消费量都出现了同比增长”。与此同时，美国正处于“驾驶季节”，即美国阵亡将士纪念日和劳动节周末之间的夏季，汽油需求在此期间达到年度峰值。

在高需求的背景下，最近有几个问题影响了炼油厂的利用率。在欧洲，壳牌公司由于泄漏问题宣布于6月初暂时关闭佩尼斯炼油厂，但没有提供有关问题原因或关闭时间的进一步信息。位于鹿特丹港的佩尼斯炼油厂是欧洲最大的炼油厂，每天可加工大约40万桶原油。在大西洋彼岸，埃克森美孚公司不得不在7月底关闭其美国第五大炼油厂巴吞鲁日炼油厂，进行意外维修，这可能会影响到该炼油厂整个夏天的剩余时间。

热浪影响炼油能力

除了特定炼油厂的问题外，最近席卷美国南部大部分地区的热浪也影响了该地区的炼油能力。极端高温天气导致炼油厂减少原油加工量，以避免损坏任何设备。炼油厂问题的积累效应，以及随着夏季的过去，原油加工量的自然放缓，意味着美国炼油厂的利用率从6月的第一周到7月底下降了3.1%。去年同期下降2%，而2019年仅下降0.2%。

未来，燃料价格的任何上涨都将受到美联储和其他国家央行的密切关注，因为燃料价格可能对通胀压力产生重大影响。此外，在过去几天里，这些市场的上行轨迹似乎已经有所放缓。这些产品的库存紧张，以及贸易商的头寸和炼油厂的利用率，将是未来几个月原油价格发展的关键指标。

李峻 译自 油价网

原文如下： 

Distillate Prices Soar On The Back Of Refinery Issues And Expensive Crude

·     The price of gasoline and other distillate fuels have rallied in recent weeks at a faster pace than the upstream crude oil benchmark.

·     A key issue behind prices for gasoline and other distillates rising has been a reduction in refining utilization while demand has remained high.

·     Any rise in fuel prices will be watched closely by the Federal Reserve and other central banks, as fuel prices can have large impacts on inflationary pressure.

The price of gasoline and other distillate fuels have rallied in recent weeks at a faster pace than the upstream crude oil benchmarks. At a time when central banks around the world appear to be nearing the end of their respective cycles of interest rate increases as inflation slows in major economies, a rally in energy markets could cause concern. In this week’s blog, we will look at the primary causes behind the recent price rises in gasoline and other distillate markets and how this situation may develop further.

Crude Oil Benchmarks on Increase

When looking at the changing prices of distillates, the most important driver is the costs of the upstream products. Having spent over two months, from late April to early July, trading within a range from $71 to $79, Brent crude oil prices have been on the rise since the last week of June and broke out of their range in the first week of July. In the past week, prices have closed as high as $85 and settled at just over $83 on Wednesday 2nd August. The story for WTI prices has been similar, with the benchmark having briefly climbed above the $80 mark last week and currently sitting just below it.

The increase in crude oil prices stems from the production cuts made by OPEC+, and more specifically by Saudi Arabia etc.. In June, Saudi Arabia announced it would be reducing production by 1 million barrels per day for the following month. This cut was subsequently extended for August, and more recently there has been speculation that it will continue for September as well. Meanwhile, when Saudi Arabia first announced its voluntary production cuts in June, it did not have the price-lifting effect that would have been expected by many. However as time has passed, the reality of the depleted production and consecutive extensions of the production cut have eventually driven oil prices upwards.

As oil prices rose out of their trading range, the price rise has been compounded by trading activity. As noted by John Kemp for Reuters, investors rushed to cover their short positions as prices rose, which further fuels the upward movement. While crude oil markets have been rather subdued this year in comparison to 2022, there are many bullish investors for whom the range-break of early July will spark optimism that crude price may yet climb back above the $90 mark and beyond this year.

Refineries Run Into Issues

Another key issue behind prices for gasoline and other distillates rising has been a reduction in refining utilization while demand has remained high. As reported by Bloomberg, gasoline demand in Europe has recovered well this year “with France, Germany, Spain and Italy all posting year-on-year increases in consumption.” The United States, meanwhile, is in the middle of its ‘driving season’, the summer months between Memorial Day and Labor Day weekends during which gasoline demand reaches its annual peak.

Amid the high levels of demand, there have been several issues impacting refinery utilization recently. In Europe, Shell announced it would be temporarily closing its Pernis refinery plant in early June due to a leak, but provided no further information regarding the cause of the issue or the duration of the closure. Pernis, located in Rotterdam, is Europe’s largest refinery site and is capable of processing around 400,000 barrels per day. Across the Atlantic, Exxon Mobil had to close its Baton Rouge refinery site, the fifth largest in the US, in late July for unexpected repairs which may impact the plant for the rest of the summer.

Alongside issues at specific refineries, the recent heatwave that has scorched much of the southern United States has also impacted the region’s refining capability. Extremely high temperatures cause refineries to reduce processing in order to avoid damaging any equipment. The cumulative effect of the refinery issues, as well as a natural slowing of processing as the summer passes by, has meant that the refinery utilization rate in the US has dropped by 3.1% from the first week of June to the end of July. Over the same period in 2022 it declined by 2%, while in 2019 it only dropped by 0.2%.

Going forward, any rise in fuel prices will be watched closely by the Federal Reserve and other central banks, as fuel prices can have large impacts on inflationary pressure. Furthermore, in the past few days there appears to have already been a softening of the upward trajectory these markets were taking. Tight inventories across these products, alongside traders positions and refinery utilization rates, will be key indicators for the price development in the coming months.