据8月8日彭博社报道称，今年石油市场上最热门的交易之一正在持续进行，有可能重塑原油现货价值架构现状并改变全球流动态势。
PVM数据显示，伦敦布伦特原油和中东迪拜原油的掉期价差已大幅下跌，与年初正常交易模式相比，这是一个戏剧性的转变，当时价差处于相当高的溢价水平。周一，油价下跌了1.60美元/桶，而1月份的溢价超过了3美元。
全球主要基准原油相对价格的波动，可能促使全球石油流动的路线发生改变，在这种情况下，将大西洋及其周边地区生产的石油出售到亚洲市场更为可行。这反过来可能导致一些原油品级的溢价发生变化，因为来自不同地区的买家想购买货物。
布伦特原油是全球基准原油，其交易价格通常高于迪拜原油，因为其较低的硫含量和较轻的密度往往生产出更高质量的燃料。但交易员表示，近几个月来，沙特阿拉伯等国的减产收紧了中等含硫原油市场。此外，他们补充道，沙特阿拉伯轻质原油等品级原油的官方销售价格今年也多次上调，进一步支撑了迪拜基准原油价格。
相反，自标普全球将美国原油WTI添加到可以确定其价格的原油篮子中以来，与伦敦期货市场相关的实物定价基准布伦特原油的可交易量激增。这导致大量美国WTI西得克萨斯中质原油被提供并基准交付，影响了远期布伦特原油相对于全球等级的估值。
这些变化与这两个级别之间的价差以及迪拜相关合约的交易活动激增相吻合。上个月，布伦特-迪拜价差的未平仓合约创下历史新高，比一年前高出67%。
王佳晶 译自 彭博社
原文如下：
Oil’s Hottest Trade Gathers Momentum as Key Spread Goes Negative
One of the hottest trades in the oil market this year is keeping on rolling, with the potential to reshape the value of physical crude cargoes and transform global flows.
The price differential between swaps for London’s Brent and Middle East’s Dubai crude has turned deeply negative, data from brokerage PVM show. It’s a dramatic shift from the start of the year — and normal trading patterns — when the spread was at a sizable premium. It was at a discount of $1.60 a barrel on Monday, compared to more than $3 premium in January.
Fluctuations in the relative prices of key global benchmarks can prompt the rerouting of oil flows across the world and, in this case, make it more viable to sell barrels produced in and around the Atlantic Ocean into Asian markets. That in turn can lead to shifts in the premiums paid for some crude grades as buyers from different locations try to purchase cargoes.
Brent, which is the global benchmark crude, generally trades at a premium to Dubai as its lower sulfur content and lighter density tends to produce higher-quality fuels. But in recent months, production cuts by Saudi Arabia etc. have tightened the medium-sour crude market, traders said. Additionally, Saudi official selling prices of grades such as Arab Light have also been hiked repeatedly this year, further supporting benchmark Dubai prices, they added.
Conversely, the tradeable volume of Dated Brent, a physical pricing benchmark that’s associated with the London futures market, has surged since its publisher S&P Global added US crude to the basket of crudes that can set its price. This has caused a flood of US West Texas Intermediate crude to be offered and delivered into the benchmark, weighing on Dated Brent’s valuation relative to global grades.
Those shifts have coincided with a jump in trading activity for both the difference between the two grades and in Dubai-related contracts more generally. Open interest on the Brent-Dubai spread hit a record last month, and is 67% higher than a year ago.
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