据油价网8月8日报道，根据机构周二发布的《短期能源展望》，EIA上调了今年和明年布伦特原油现货价格的预测。
根据该报告，EIA预计今年布伦特原油价格平均每桶82.62美元，较之前上调了约4美元。明年，该机构预测布伦特原油平均每桶价格将达到86.48美元，较之前上调了约2美元，涨幅为3.6%。
对于8月份，EIA预计布伦特原油平均每桶价格为85美元。
EIA在最新预测中表示：“由于沙特阿拉伯延长了自愿减产的原因以及全球需求增加，原油价格自6月份以来有所上涨。我们预计这些因素将继续减少全球石油库存，并在未来几个月对油价产生上行压力，预计2023年下半年布伦特原油价格平均为每桶86美元，较我们7月份的短期能源展望预测上调约7美元。”
EIA预计明年全球石油产量的增加将能够满足石油需求，从而在2024年第二季度对油价施加一定下行压力。
EIA预计今年美国原油产量平均为每日1280万桶，明年将达到1310万桶，这将超过以往的年度最高水平，原因是预计井口生产率提高以及原油价格上涨。2022年，美国原油产量为日均1191万桶。
预计今年全球石油产量将增加每日140万桶，其中非欧佩克产量预计将增加每日210万桶。明年，EIA预测全球原油产量将每日增加170万桶。
根据EIA的数据显示，去年布伦特原油价格平均为每桶100.94美元，而2021年为每桶70.89美元。
胡耀东 译自 油价网
原文如下：
EIA Raises Brent Spot Price Forecast
The Energy Information Administration raised its outlook for Brent crude oil spot prices for this year and next, according to the agency’s Short Term Energy Outlook published on Tuesday.
The EIA sees Brent crude oil prices averaging $82.62 per barrel this year—an upward revision of some $4 per barrel, the STEO showed. For next year, the EIA predicts Brent will average $86.48 per barrel, an upward revision of some $2 per barrel, or 3.6%.
For August, the EIA sees Brent crude averaging $85 per barrel.
“Crude oil prices have increased since June, primarily because of extended voluntary cuts to Saudi Arabia’s crude oil production and increasing global demand. We expect these factors will continue to reduce global oil inventories and put upward pressure on oil prices in the coming months, with the Brent price averaging $86/b in the second half of 2023 (2H23), up about $7/b from our July Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO) forecast for the same period,” the EIA said in its latest forecast.
Rising global oil production anticipated next year is expected to keep up with oil demand, keeping some downward pressure on prices in Q2 2024.
The EIA sees crude oil production in the United States averaging 12.8 million barrels per day this year, and 13.1 million bpd next year, beating annual records on the back of expectations for higher well-level productivity and higher crude prices. U.S. crude oil production in 2922 averaged 11.91 million bpd.
Global oil production is expected to increase by 1.4 million bpd this year, with non-OPEC production expected to increase by 2.1 million bpd. Next year, the EIA is forecasting a 1.7 million bpd rise in global crude oil production.
Brent crude prices averaged $100.94 last year, and $70.89 in 2021, EIA data shows.
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