“油价正在攀登质疑和怀疑之墙”（源自金融领域，意指投资者在对市场前景保持谨慎怀疑的同时，仍继续投资与时刻准备应对挑战）
沙特阿拉伯不太可能在每桶90美元或92美元的油价时逆转减产
8月14日，由于经济复苏继续令人失望，而美元走强，油价小幅走低
据油价网2023年8月14日报道，美国能源咨询公司拉皮丹能源集团（Rapidan Energy）总裁鲍勃·麦克纳利周一在接受CNBC的财经漫谈（Squawk Box）节目采访时表示，石油市场正处于看涨走势，并将稳步进入每桶90美元的区间。
麦克纳利补充说，油价达到每桶100美元是“完全有可能的”。
麦克纳利说：“油价正在攀登至质疑和怀疑之墙。”
到目前为止，交易商们一直关注的是产能大国的供应不会大幅下降。麦克纳利告诉CNBC，市场也“在宏观雷区跳舞”。
“我们有充分的理由持怀疑态度。但基本面就是基本面。欧佩克+联盟将在下半年给市场带来巨大的产能赤字。”麦克纳利补充说。
麦克纳利表示，沙特阿拉伯不太可能在每桶90美元或92美元的油价时逆转减产。沙特阿拉伯更有可能希望确保“在他们决定刹车之前，他们正在创造的赤字正在我们眼前实现”。
美国政府没有任何好的办法来降低汽油价格。麦克纳利告诉CNBC，如果美国全国汽油平均价格再次达到每加仑4美元，可能会有更多的汽油从战略石油储备(SPR)中提取出来，但在去年SPR发布后，这不是一个很好的选择。
由于经济复苏继续令人失望，而美元走强，8月14日油价小幅下跌。
盛宝银行(Saxo Bank)分析师周一在一份市场评论中表示，只要欧佩克+联盟维持目前紧张的产量水平，油价下行风险仍然有限，尤其是考虑到国际能源署(IEA)上周的预测，即6月份石油需求飙升至历史高位，并可能进一步上升。
荷兰国际集团(ING)策略师沃伦·帕特森和埃瓦·曼西尼8月14日表示，布伦特原油价格已连续七周上涨，原因是基本面趋紧继续导致原油均价和时间套利走强。
他们补充说：“市场情绪基本保持积极，石油平衡将继续收紧，而炼油厂利润率上升也提供了一些支撑。”
李峻 译自 油价网
原文如下：
Analyst: Oil Is Heading Well Into The $90 Range
· McNally: “Oil prices are climbing a wall of doubt and skepticism,”.
· McNally: The Saudis are unlikely to reverse the cuts at $90 or $92 oil.
· Oil prices traded slightly lower on Monday as economic recovery continued to disappoint while the U.S. dollar strengthened.
The oil market is in a bullish move and heading well into the $90 per barrel range, Bob McNally, President at Rapidan Energy, told CNBC’s Squawk Box program on Monday.
Oil hitting $100 per barrel is “entirely possible,” McNally added.
“Oil prices are climbing a wall of doubt and skepticism,” he said.
So far, traders have been focused on the lack of a significant drop in the bigger producer's supply. The market is also “dancing in a macro minefield,” McNally told CNBC.
“There are good reasons to be skeptical. But fundamentals are fundamentals. OPEC+ is going to put a huge deficit into the market into the second half,” he added.
The Saudis are unlikely to reverse the cuts at $90 or $92 oil, McNally said. The Kingdom is more likely looking to be sure that “the deficits they are creating are materializing before our eyes, before they decide to put the brake there.”
The U.S. Administration doesn’t have any good options for bringing the price of gasoline down. Should national average prices hit $4 per gallon again, there could be more draws from the Strategic PB etroleum Reserve (SPR), but this isn’t a very good option after last year’s releases from the SPR, McNally told CNBC.
Oil prices traded lower on Monday as economic recovery continued to disappoint while the U.S. dollar strengthened.
The downside risks remain limited as long as OPEC+ maintain production at the current tight levels, not least considering IEA’s forecast from last week that oil demand surged to a record high in June and may rise even further, Saxo Bank analysts said in a market commentary on Monday.
Brent prices have now registered seven consecutive weeks of gains as tighter fundamentals continue to feed through to a stronger flat price and time spreads, ING strategists Warren Patterson and Ewa Manthey said on Monday.
“Sentiment remains largely positive with the oil balance set to continue to tighten, while stronger refinery margins are also providing some support,” they added.
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