今年化石燃料仍将占全球一次能源消费的82%

今年的全球能源结构显示，化石燃料继续占据主导地位，占一次能源消费的82%，风能和太阳能等可再生能源产能将迅速扩张

去年以来地缘政治冲突对能源市场产生了深远影响，推高了天然气和煤炭价格，同时扰乱了能源进口，改变了欧洲的煤炭淘汰计划

尽管风能和太阳能等可再生能源取得了重大进展，但来自能源的二氧化碳排放量达到历史最高的344亿吨，凸显出其与《巴黎协定》目标之间的差距越来越大

据油价网2023年8月10日报道，英国石油公司（bp）已经将其年度《世界能源统计评论》报告的出版权转交给了英国能源研究所(EI)。《世界能源统计评论》报告有助于提供全球石油、天然气和煤炭生产和消费的综合数据，以及二氧化碳排放和可再生能源统计数据。今天，我将介绍最近发布的《2023年世界能源统计评论》报告的亮点。

概述  

最新出版的《世界能源统计评论》报告显示，尽管太阳能和风能等可再生能源继续快速增长，但世界仍然严重依赖化石燃料来满足能源需求。

虽然可再生能源以历史最高速度增长，但化石燃料在一次能源消费总量中仍占82%的份额。天然气和煤炭需求几乎持平，油价反弹至接近疫情前的水平。作为参考，这一比例低于2010年的87%。按照这样的下降速度，化石燃料消耗将需要近200年的时间才能达到零。

去年全球能源需求增长1.1%创历史新高，但低于2021年5.5%的增速。这是由多种因素造成的，包括扰乱能源市场的地缘政治冲突，以及全球经济放缓。

全球可再生能源继续强劲增长，太阳能、风能在一次能源消费中的比重达到7.5%。这比前一年增长近1%。去年全球可再生能源(不包括水电)增长14%，略低于前一年16%的增幅。

去年，全球煤炭需求增长0.6%，达到2014年以来的最高水平。这是10年平均0.2%增长率的3倍。煤炭需求增长主要是由印度(4%)等推动的。与2021年相比，全球煤炭产量增长超过7%，达到历史新高。印度和印度尼西亚等国占全球煤炭产量增长的95%以上。

去年，全球石油需求增长3.1%，也远高于0.9%的10年平均增长率。这是由于疫情后经济持续复苏。全球去年石油消费仍比2019年水平低0.7%。去年，全球石油日产量增加380万桶，其中欧佩克+占增量的60%以上。在所有国家中，沙特阿拉伯(118.2万桶/天)和美国(109.1万桶/天)的增幅最大。

去年，全球天然气需求下降3%，在2021年首次跌破4万亿立方米大关。去年，天然气在一次能源消费中所占的份额略有下降，从2021年的25%降至24%。这一下降的原因是去年欧洲和亚洲的天然气价格达到历史最高水平，欧洲的天然气价格上涨近三倍，亚洲液化天然气现货市场的价格上涨一倍。去年，美国亨利中心天然气的平均价格上涨50%以上，达到6.5美元/百万英热单位，这是自2008年以来的最高水平。

去年全球发电量增长2.3%，低于前一年6.2%的增长率。风能和太阳能在全球发电总量中所占份额达到历史最高水平的12%，其中太阳能和风能分别增长25%和13.5%。去年风能和太阳能的发电量再一次超过核能。

去年，煤炭仍是全球发电的主要燃料，占比稳定在35.4%左右，略低于2021年的35.8%。去年天然气发电保持稳定，份额约为23%。核能发电量下降4.4%。去年，可再生能源(不包括水电)满足84%的净电力需求增长。

碳排放创历史新高

与此同时，去年全球来自能源的二氧化碳排放量增加0.9%，达到344亿吨的历史新高，表明在遏制全球碳排放方面缺乏进展。二氧化碳排放量已经远离《巴黎协定》所要求的减排目标。

EI总裁朱丽叶·达文波特表示：“尽管风能和太阳能在电力领域进一步强劲增长，但全球与能源相关的温室气体排放总量再次增加。”“我们仍在朝着与《巴黎协定》要求相反的方向迈进。”

地缘政治冲突驱动能源危机

这场危机导致德国等国停止了逐步淘汰煤炭的计划，因为能源安全比气候目标更重要。尽管欧洲和北美削减了煤炭消费量，但印度等对煤炭的持续依赖提振了需求。

另一方面，风能和太阳能在去年实现了历史最高水平的增长。然而，由于发展中国家继续转向所有可用的能源来推动经济增长，这并没有改变二氧化碳排放问题。

电动汽车迅速普及，导致锂和钴等关键矿产品供应紧张。但根据报告的发现，世界能源系统在从气候变暖的化石燃料转型方面仍然落后。报告指出，要在本世纪中叶实现净零排放，还需要取得更大的进展。

李峻 译自 油价网

原文如下：

Fossil Fuels Still Account For 82% Of Primary Global Energy Consumption

·     The global energy mix in 2023 showed continued dominance of fossil fuels at 82% primary energy consumption, with renewables like wind and solar seeing rapid expansion.

·     The geopolitical conflicts profoundly impacted energy markets, driving up natural gas and coal prices while disrupting energy imports and altering coal phase-out plans in Europe.

·     Carbon dioxide emissions from energy reached a record 34.4 billion metric tons, highlighting the increasing gap from Paris Agreement targets, even as renewable energy sources like wind and solar achieved significant milestones.

As I indicated in the previous article, BP has turned over publication of the annual Statistical Review of World Energy to the Energy Institute (EI). The Statistical Review is instrumental in providing comprehensive data on global oil, gas, and coal production and consumption, as well as on carbon dioxide emissions and renewable energy statistics.

The full report and all data can be found at this link. Today, I will cover the recently published 2023 report’s highlights.

Overview

The newest Review shows the world remains heavily reliant on fossil fuels for energy needs, even as renewables like solar and wind continue rapid growth.

While renewable power expanded at record rates, fossil fuels maintained an 82% share of total primary energy consumption. Natural gas and coal demand stayed nearly flat with oil rebounding close to pre-pandemic levels. For reference, this is down from an 87% share in 2010. At that rate of decline, it would be nearly 200 years before fossil fuel consumption reached zero.

Global energy demand grew by 1.1% in 2022 to a new record, but slower than the 5.5% growth in 2021. This was due to a number of factors, including the war in Ukraine, which disrupted energy markets, and the economic slowdown in Asia.

Renewable energy continued to grow strongly, with solar and wind reaching a 7.5% share of primary energy consumption. This was an increase of nearly 1% over the previous year. Renewable power (excluding hydro) grew 14% in 2022, slightly below the previous year’s growth rate of 16%.

Global coal demand grew by 0.6% in 2022, to the highest level of coal consumption since 2014. The growth was triple the 10-year average growth rate of 0.2%. The growth in demand was largely driven by India (4%) etc.. Global coal production increased by over 7% compared to 2021, reaching a record high. India, and Indonesia etc.accounted for over 95% of the increase in global production.

Oil demand grew by 3.1% in 2022, also well ahead of the 0.9% 10-year growth average. This was due to the ongoing post-Covid economic recovery. Consumption remained 0.7% below 2019 levels. Global oil production increased by 3.8 million barrels per day (bpd) in 2022, with OPEC+ accounting for more than 60% of the increase. Among all countries, Saudi Arabia (1,182,000 bpd) and the US (1,091,000 bpd), saw the largest increases.

Global natural gas demand declined by 3% in 2022 dropping just below the 4 trillion cubic meter mark achieved for the first time in 2021. Its share in primary energy in 2022 decreased slightly to 24% (from 25% in 2021). The decline was attributable to record price levels in Europe and Asia in 2022, rising nearly threefold in Europe and doubling in the Asian LNG spot market. U.S. Henry Hub prices rose over 50% to average $6.5/MMBtu in 2022 – their highest annual level since 2008.

Global electricity generation increased by 2.3% in 2022 which was lower than the previous year’s growth rate of 6.2%. Wind and solar reached a record high of 12% share of power generation with solar recording 25% and wind power 13.5% growth in output. The combined generation from wind and solar once again surpassed that of nuclear energy.

Coal remained the dominant fuel globally for power generation in 2022, with a stable share around 35.4%, down slightly from 35.8% in 2021. Natural gas-fired power generation remained stable in 2022 with a share of around 23%. Output from nuclear power fell by 4.4%. Renewables (excluding hydro) met 84% of net electricity demand growth in 2022.

Record High Carbon Emissions

Meanwhile, carbon dioxide emissions from energy rose 0.9% to a new high of 34.4 billion metric tons, indicating lack of progress in curbing worldwide carbon output. Emissions have moved further away from the reductions called for in the Paris Agreement.

“Despite further strong growth in wind and solar in the power sector, overall global energy-related greenhouse gas emissions increased again,” said EI President Juliet Davenport. “We are still heading in the opposite direction to that required by the Paris Agreement.”

Geopolitical conflicts Drives Energy Crisis

The crisis led countries like Germany to halt their coal phase-out plans as energy security took priority over climate goals. India’s ongoing reliance on coal boosted demand despite Europe and North America cutting consumption.

On a brighter note, wind and solar achieved record additions in 2022. However, this didn’t move the needle on emissions as developing nations continue turning to all available energy sources to fuel economic growth.

Electric vehicles (EVs) spread rapidly, straining supplies of key minerals like lithium and cobalt. But the world’s energy systems are still falling behind on transitioning away from climate-warming fossil fuels, according to the report’s findings. The Review indicated that far more progress is needed to achieve net-zero emissions by mid-century.