今年上半年全球发现的常规油气储量降至新低

据美国钻井网站2023年8月8日报道，尽管今年上半年全球对常规油气勘探的投资不断增加，但所发现的油气储量却降至新低。

挪威著名能源研究和商业情报公司睿咨得能源公司（Rystad）在发给美国钻井网站的一份新报告中强调了这一点，并补充说，其估计显示，今年上半年，全球勘探公司发现了26亿桶油当量的油气储量，Rystad表示，这比去年上半年发现的45亿桶油当量油气储量减少42%。

Rystad在新闻稿中透露，今年1月至6月全球获得55个新发现，“而去年上半年的新发现为80个”。 Rystad在新闻稿中指出，这意味着今年每个新发现的平均发现量为4700万桶油当量，低于去年同期的5600万桶油当量。

在新闻稿中，Rystad表示，“在寻找新资源的过程中”，勘探公司正在优先考虑海上领域。 Rystad在新闻稿中强调，今年迄今为止，海上行业占勘探总支出的95%左右，但仅占已发现储量的三分之二左右。

Rystad透露，今年全球常规勘探支出预计将超过500亿美元。这一数字在去年低于500亿美元，在2021年略高于400亿美元。

Rystad上游研究副总裁Aatisha Mahajan在一份公司声明中表示：“上游公司正面临一段不确定时期。”

Mahajan补充说：“上游公司渴望利用对化石燃料日益增长的需求，寻找更多的资源，但最近的结果并不乐观。”

“如果勘探工作在今年剩下的时间里继续取得令人印象深刻的结果，那么今年可能会因为错误的原因而突破历史新高。”Mahajan继续说道。

储量大国、海上发现排名与高影响力井

Rystad在新闻稿中表示，到目前为止，圭亚那在今年已发现的油气储量方面处于领先地位，为6.03亿桶油当量。根据Rystad的数据，土耳其以3.8亿桶油当量排名第二，尼日利亚以2.96亿桶油当量排名第三，纳米比亚以2.87亿桶油当量排名第四，并强调“随着我们更好地了解储量”，这些估计数有可能增加。

Rystad在新闻稿中指出，海上发现相对均匀地分布在超深水、深水和大陆架上。Rystad补充说，预计今年剩余时间的勘探活动将增加，特别是在超深水市场，“预计与去年相比将增长27%”。

Rystad在新闻稿中列出了今年1月至6月海上钻井活动排名前15位的盆地。根据统计数据，美国墨西哥湾深水区排名第一，挪威/英国的维京地堑排名第二，墨西哥的苏雷特盆地排名第三。

Rystad在新闻稿中表示，其研究表明，今年全球预计将钻31口高影响力井。到目前为止，已经完钻了13口高影响力井，6口高影响力井正在钻进中，12口高影响力井仍在筹划中，Rystad补充说，“在13口已完钻的高影响力井中，只有4口高影响力井钻遇到了碳氢化合物，成功率仅为31%”。

石油巨头的勘探支出

Rystad在发布会上表示，埃克森美孚公司、英国石油公司、壳牌公司、道达尔能源公司、埃尼公司和雪佛龙公司预计今年将在勘探上花费约70亿美元，并补充说这比去年高出约10%。

Rystad在发布会上指出，预测显示，未来几个月大型石油公司的勘探支出将占全球勘探总支出的14%左右。然而，Rystad在新闻稿中透露，今年预计全球勘探支出的一半以上将来自国家石油公司和拥有国际投资组合的国家石油公司。

今年5月，Rystad在其网站上发布的一份声明中指出，对全球能源可靠性的担忧正在引发石油和天然气投资的激增，但警告说，这种增长只是暂时的。

Rystad在声明中表示：“爆发地缘政治冲突后，去年和今年全球对化石燃料的预期投资激增了1400亿美元。”

Rystad补充说：“去年之前两年的总开支预计为9450亿美元，但由于战争导致物资短缺和价格飙升，预计开支已跃升至近1.1万亿美元。”

“在1400亿美元的增长中，页岩生产以800亿美元的额外开支增长吸引了大部分关注，增加了30%，油田服务的开支上涨了近50%。海上生产开支增长了400亿美元，而其他陆上活动开支增加了200亿美元。”

2022年是表现突出的一年

今年1月，伍德麦肯兹在其网站上发布的一份声明中表示，全球油气勘探行业在2022年是其十多年来最强劲的一年。

伍德麦肯兹在声明中表示：“伍德麦肯兹的《油气勘探：2022年回顾》报告指出，2022年勘探井数量不到疫情前几年的一半，但200亿桶油当量的总产量与2013—2019年的平均年产量相当。”

伍德麦肯兹全球勘探研究总监朱莉·威尔逊在声明中指出：“2022年是勘探领域表现突出的一年。”

“销量不错，但不是特别好。然而，勘探者能够通过战略选择和专注于最佳和最大的远景构造来获得极高价值。”

威尔逊继续说道：“这些发现为企业的投资组合带来了更高质量的碳氢化合物，使他们能够通过取代不太有利的石油和天然气供应来减少碳排放，同时也满足了世界的能源需求。”

李峻 译自 油价网

原文如下：

Conventional Discovered Oil and Gas Volumes Falling to New Lows|

Despite rising investments in conventional oil and gas exploration, discovered volumes are falling to new lows.

That’s what Rystad Energy research shows, the company highlighted in a new release sent to Rigzone, adding that its estimates show that in the first half of 2023, explorers found 2.6 billion barrels of oil equivalent (boe), which the company said was 42 percent lower than the first half of 2022 total of 4.5 billion boe.

Rystad revealed in the release that 55 discoveries have been made from January to June this year, “compared to 80 in the first six months of last year”. The company noted in the release that this means discoveries in 2023 have averaged 47 million boe, which it said is lower than the 56 million boe per discovery for the same period in 2022.

In the release, Rystad stated that, “in the hunt for new resources”, exploration companies are prioritizing the offshore sector. The offshore industry accounted for about 95 percent of exploration spending this year to date, but only about two-thirds of discovered volumes, the company highlighted in the release.

In a chart included in the publication, Rystad revealed that annual global conventional exploration spending is expected to top $50 billion in 2023. This figure came in below $50 billion in 2022 and just above $40 billion in 2021, according to the chart.

“Upstream companies are facing a period of uncertainty,” Aatisha Mahajan, the Vice President of Upstream Research at Rystad Energy, said in a company statement.

“They are eager to capitalize on the increased demand for fossil fuels and find additional resources, but recent results have been lackluster,” Mahajan added.

“If exploration efforts continue to yield unimpressive results for the remainder of the year, 2023 could be a record-breaker for the wrong reasons,” the VP continued.

Top Countries, Offshore Discovery Type, HI Wells

Guyana leads the way in discovered volumes so far in 2023, with 603 million boe, Rystad outlined in the release. Turkey ranks second with 380 million boe, Nigeria lies third with 296 million boe, and Namibia places fourth with 287 million boe, according to Rystad, which highlighted that there is potential for these estimates to grow “as we better understand the reserves”.

Offshore discoveries are spread relatively evenly between ultra-deepwater, deepwater, and shelf finds, Rystad noted in the release. The company added that it expects increased activity in the remainder of 2023, especially in the ultra-deepwater market, “with projected growth of 27 percent versus 2022 in terms of spud wells”.

In another chart included in the release, Rystad ranked the top 15 basins by offshore well spud activity from January to June this year. The U.S. Gulf deepwater was top, the Viking Graben in Norway/UK was second, and Mexico’s Sureste was third, according to the chart.

Rystad said in the release its research shows that 31 high-impact wells are expected to be drilled this year. So far, 13 have been completed, six are ongoing, and 12 remain in the pipeline, the company highlighted, adding that “only four of the 13 completed wells encountered hydrocarbons, a measly 31 percent success rate”.

Spending

ExxonMobil, BP, Shell, TotalEnergies, Eni, and Chevron are expected to spend about $7 billion this year on exploration, Rystad outlined in the release, adding that this is about 10 percent higher than last year.

Rystad noted in the release that its forecasts show that the majors will contribute about 14 percent of total global exploration spending in the coming months. More than half of the projected exploration spending in 2023 will come from national oil companies and national oil companies with international portfolios, however, the company revealed in the release.

In a statement posted on its site back in May, Rystad noted that global energy reliability concerns are triggering a surge in oil and gas investments but warned that this uptick is only temporary.

“After the conflicts, expected investments in fossil fuels in 2022 and 2023 surged by $140 billion, Rystad Energy research shows,” Rystad said in the statement.

“Before the conflicts, the two-year total was projected at $945 billion, but as the war sparked shortages and sky-high prices, expected spending has jumped to almost $1.1 trillion,” the company added.

“Of the $140 billion growth, shale production attracted most of the limelight with an additional $80 billion increase, as activity climbed 30 percent and pricing for oilfield services jumped nearly 50 percent. Offshore production accounted for $40 billion in growth, while other onshore activities expanded by an additional $20 billion,” Rystad continued.

2022 A Standout Year

The global oil and gas exploration sector had its strongest year in 2022 in more than a decade, Wood Mackenzie said in a statement posted on its site back in January this year.

“Wood Mackenzie’s ‘Oil and gas exploration: 2022 in review’ report states that exploration well numbers were less than half the numbers during pre-pandemic years, yet the total volume of 20 billion barrels of oil equivalent matched the average annual volumes of 2013-2019,” the company said in the statement.

“2022 was a standout year for exploration,” Julie Wilson, the Director of global exploration research at Wood Mackenzie, noted in the statement.

“Volumes were good, but not stellar. However, explorers were able to drive very high value through strategic selection and focusing on the best and largest prospects,” Wilson added.

“The discoveries bring higher-quality hydrocarbons into companies’ portfolios, allowing them to reduce carbon by displacing less advantaged oil and gas supplies while also meeting the world’s energy needs,” Wilson went on to state.