据美国钻井网站2023年8月17日报道，美国银行全球研究部在周二（8月15日）发布的一份新报告中公布了其对2024年布伦特原油和西得克萨斯中质原油价格的最新预测。
美国银行全球研究部在这份新报告中概述称，它维持对明年布伦特原油价格每桶90美元和西得克萨斯中质原油价格每桶85美元的预测。
美国银行全球研究部分析师在报告中指出：“尽管2024年更好的全球能源需求趋势可能会进一步延长能源价格的上涨势头，但我们看到了极限。”
“我们的经济团队最近上调了对全球GDP的预测，现在预计今年全球GDP将增长3%，2024年将增长2.8%。然而，石油对GDP的β值（即边际消费倾向实际GDP影响值）不像以前那么强，欧佩克+联盟现在有更多的备用产能，因为它刚刚实施了大幅减产。”
“在这一点上，为了抵消明年沙特减产的部分影响，2024年全球GDP可能需要增长3.5%至4%，比美国银行的预期高出0.7%至1.2%。”美国银行全球研究部的分析师们继续说道。
分析师们接着说，此外，衰退风险已经消退，但并未消失，全球名义和实际利率高企将在明年增加再融资风险。
美国银行全球研究部的分析师们在报告中表示，他们认为，布伦特原油价格要持续突破每桶100美元，需求状况需要大幅改善。
分析师们表示：“由于石油供需可能在2024年保持大致平衡，布伦特原油价格持续上涨至每桶100美元以上，因此将取决于欧佩克+联盟进一步削减原油供应(不太可能)、计划外供应中断(不确定)或更好的需求条件(意外)。”
美国银行全球研究部分析师们在报告中强调，他们预计今年全球石油日需求量将增加190万桶，2024年将增加106万桶，“需求增加主要由亚洲主导”。
在8月份发布的最新短期能源展望(STEO)报告中，美国能源信息署(EIA)预计，2024年布伦特原油和西得克萨斯中质原油的现货平均价格将分别达到每桶86.48美元和每桶81.48美元。
8月STEO报告预计，明年第一季度布伦特原油现货价格平均为每桶88美元，第二季度为每桶87美元，第三季度为每桶86美元，第四季度为每桶85美元。8月STEO报告预计，2024年第一季度WTI原油现货均价将为每桶83美元，第二季度为每桶82美元，第三季度为每桶81美元，第四季度为每桶80美元。
EIA在7月份发布的上一份STEO报告中预测，2024年布伦特原油现货价格平均为每桶83.51美元，明年WTI原油现货价格平均为每桶78.51美元。
在该STEO报告中，预计2024年第一季度布伦特原油现货价格平均为每桶81.98美元，第二季度为每桶83美元，第三季度为每桶84美元，第四季度为每桶85美元。7月份的STEO报告预计，明年第一季度WTI原油现货价格平均为每桶76.98美元，第二季度为每桶78美元，第三季度为每桶79美元，第四季度为每桶80美元。
在本周发给美国钻井网站的一份报告中，渣打银行透露，到2024年，洲际交易所布伦特原油均价为每桶98美元，纽约商交所西得克萨斯中质原油均价为每桶95美元。
渣打银行预计，2024年第一季度布伦特原油均价为每桶92美元，第二季度为每桶94美元，第三季度为每桶98美元，第四季度为每桶106美元。渣打银行预测，明年第一季度WTI原油平均价格为每桶89美元，第二季度为每桶91美元，第三季度为每桶95美元，第四季度为每桶103美元。
在7月18日发给美国钻井网站的另一份报告中，渣打银行对布伦特原油和西得克萨斯中质原油的2024年季度和总体价格做出了同样的预测。
在撰写本文时，布伦特原油的交易价格为每桶83.91美元，而WTI原油的交易价格为每桶79.85美元。
布伦特原油价格从6月27日的每桶72.26美元上涨至8月9日的每桶87.55美元。在同一时间段内，西得克萨斯中质原油价格从每桶67.7美元上涨至每桶84.4美元。
李峻 译自 油价网
原文如下：
BofA Global Research Reveals Latest Oil Price Forecasts
BofA Global Research has revealed its latest Brent and WTI oil price forecasts for 2024 in a new report published Tuesday, which was sent to Rigzone.
In the report, BofA Global Research outlined that it was maintaining a Brent forecast of $90 per barrel and a WTI forecast of $85 per barrel for next year.
“While better global energy demand trends in 2024 could further extend the upward momentum in energy prices, we see limits,” BofA Global Research analysts noted in the report.
“Our economics team recently upgraded their global GDP forecast and now expects growth of three percent in 2023 and 2.8 percent in 2024. Yet, oil betas to GDP are not as strong as they used to be and OPEC+ now has more spare capacity due to the deep cuts it just implemented,” they added.
“On this point, to offset a partial unwind of the Saudi ‘lollipop cut’ next year would likely require global GDP growth of 3.5 percent to four percent in 2024, 0.7 percent to 1.2 percent higher than BofA expectations,” the analysts continued.
“Also, recession risks have faded but not disappeared and high nominal and real interest rates globally will increase refinancing risks in the next year,” they went on to state.
In the report, the BofA Global Research analysts said they believe demand conditions need to improve materially for a sustained move above $100 per barrel in Brent.
“With oil supply and demand likely to remain roughly balanced in 2024, a sustained run up in Brent oil prices above $100 per barrel would thus depend on deeper oil supply cuts by OPEC+ (unlikely), unplanned supply disruptions (uncertain), or much better demand conditions (unexpected),” they stated.
The BofA Global Research analysts highlighted in the report that, net, they see 1.9 million barrels per day of global oil demand growth in 2023 and 1.06 million barrels in 2024, “led mostly by Asia”.
In its latest short term energy outlook (STEO), which was released in August, the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) projected that the Brent and WTI spot average prices would come in at $86.48 per barrel and $81.48 per barrel, respectively, in 2024.
The August STEO sees the Brent spot price averaging $88 per barrel in the first quarter of next year, $87 per barrel in the second quarter, $86 per barrel in the third quarter, and $85 per barrel in the fourth quarter. The STEO anticipates that the WTI spot price average will be $83 per barrel in the first quarter of 2024, $82 per barrel in the second quarter, $81 per barrel in the third quarter, and $80 per barrel in the fourth quarter.
In its previous STEO, which was released in July, the EIA projected that the Brent spot price would average $83.51 in 2024 and that the WTI spot price would average $78.51 per barrel next year.
In that STEO, the Brent spot price was expected to average $81.98 per barrel in the first quarter of 2024, $83 per barrel in the second quarter, $84 per barrel in the third quarter, and $85 per barrel in the fourth quarter. The WTI spot price was expected to average $76.98 per barrel in the first quarter of next year, $78 per barrel in the second quarter, $79 per barrel in the third quarter, and $80 per barrel in the fourth quarter, the July STEO showed.
In a report sent to Rigzone this week, Standard Chartered revealed that it saw ICE Brent averaging $98 per barrel and NYMEX WTI averaging $95 per barrel in 2024.
Standard Chartered sees the Brent price averaging $92 per barrel in the first quarter of 2024, $94 per barrel in the second quarter, $98 per barrel in the third quarter, and $106 per barrel in the fourth quarter, the report highlighted. The company expects the WTI price to average $89 per barrel in the first quarter of next year, $91 per barrel in the second quarter, $95 per barrel in the third quarter, and $103 per barrel in the fourth quarter, according to the report.
Standard Chartered made the same quarterly, and overall, 2024 price projections for Brent and WTI in another report sent to Rigzone on July 18.
At the time of writing, Brent crude is trading at $83.91 per barrel, while WTI crude is trading at $79.85 per barrel.
Brent rose from a close of $72.26 per barrel on June 27 to a close of $87.55 per barrel on August 9. WTI rose from a close of $67.7 per barrel to a close of $84.4 per barrel during the same timeframe.
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