据OE网站8月16日报道，根据伍德麦肯兹（Wood Mackenzie）的一份新报告显示，未来五年，勘探支出(不包括评估)将从历史低点回升至平均每年220亿美元的实际水平。
伍德麦肯兹最新的“勘探悄然复苏”报告显示，有吸引力的勘探经济、能源安全需求以及新领域的出现，将激励以国有石油公司和大型石油公司为首的油气公司在2027年之前增加勘探支出。
伍德麦肯兹全球勘探研究主管朱莉·威尔逊(Julie Wilson)表示，未来几年，勘探者将变得更加大胆。尽管这种反弹可能会让一些人感到意外，但必须放在大背景下看待。2006年至2014年期间，勘探经历了繁荣，支出达到790亿美元的峰值(按2023年条款计算)。但在之前的六年里，每年的平均收入为270亿美元(按2023年条款计算)。虽然支出会增加，但不会回到接近过去高点的水平，而且增长可能会有上限。缺乏能够满足当今经济和ESG指标的高质量前景，继续关注资本纪律将遏制超支情况发生。
该机构预计，增长从2023年开始，预计支出将比2022年总额增长6.8%（按实际条款计算）。勘探活动增加的一个主要驱动因素是稳健的商业案例。据伍德麦肯兹称，自2018年以来，勘探的全周期回报率一直高于10%，2022年超过20%。
威尔逊表示，这些积极的结果增强了人们对勘探的信心。业绩的改善归因于许多因素：投资组合的高评级，加上在支出和前景选择方面的更严格资本纪律，意味着只有最好的前景区块才能被钻探，损失达到最小化。效率的提高也有助于提高开发和勘探的回报。
从长远来看，深水和超深水将为勘探提供最多的增长机会。非洲大西洋沿岸和东地中海地区将经历最大的增长，并将在一些未指明的新领域进行支出。
威尔逊补充道，有些地区正在利用最近的地震数据寻找线索和前景，例如乌拉圭、阿根廷南部和马来西亚深水区。未来在“成功案例”领域的支出是在成功之后的额外探索，无论是在纳米比亚或希腊这样的边境地区，还是在埃及尼罗河三角洲这样更为成熟的区域。
郝芬 译自 OE网站
原文如下：
Oil and Gas Exploration Spending Expected to Recover from Historic Lows
Exploration spending (excluding appraisal) will recover from historic lows to an average of $22 billion per annum in real terms over the next five years, according to a new report from Wood Mackenzie.
Tailwinds from attractive exploration economics, the need for energy security and the emergence of new frontiers will incentivize oil and gas companies, led by NOCs and Majors, to increase exploration spending through 2027, according to Wood Mackenzie’s new “Exploration quietly recovering” report.
“Explorers will become bolder in the coming years,” said Julie Wilson, director of global exploration research at Wood Mackenzie. “While this rebound might surprise some, it must be seen in context. Exploration went through a boom during 2006-2014 and spend peaked at US$79 billion (in 2023 terms). But in the prior six years, the average was US$27 billion per year in 2023 terms.
“While spending will increase, it won’t return to anywhere close to past highs and there will likely be a ceiling on the increase. There is a lack of high-quality prospects that would satisfy today’s economic and ESG metrics and a continued focus on capital discipline will keep a lid on overspending.”
The growth will begin in 2023, with spending projected to increase 6.8% over 2022 totals (in real terms). A major driver for this increased activity is the robust business case. According to Wood Mackenzie, full-cycle returns from exploration have been consistently above 10% since 2018 and exceeded 20% in 2022.
“These positive results have increased confidence in exploration,” said Wilson. “Improved results are down to many factors. Portfolio high-grading coupled with greater discipline in spending and prospect choice mean only the best prospects are drilled and waste is minimized. Efficiency gains also serve to enhance the returns from both development and exploration.”
In the long term, deepwater and ultra-deepwater will provide the most growth opportunities for exploration. The Atlantic Margin of Africa and the Eastern Mediterranean regions will experience the greatest growth and there will be spend in some unspecified new frontiers.
“There are areas where leads and prospects are being worked up with recent seismic data, for example Uruguay, southern Argentina and deepwater Malaysia,” added Wilson. “Future spend in ‘success case’ areas is additional exploration following success, whether that's in a frontier like Namibia or Greece, or a more established province like Egypt's Nile Delta.”
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