WM：净零目标将不会减缓石油和天然气勘探

新的油气勘探投资正在复苏，未来四年平均每年将达到220亿美元

油气勘探支出的复苏是在能源转型的双重压力下发生的

碳氢化合物需求的预期增长和能源安全的相对重要性是石油公司加大油气勘探支出的两个原因

据油价网2023年8月19日报道，多年来，油气勘探投资不足一直是能源安全的一个障碍。

各行各业的高管，都警告称，除非对新油气勘探的投资反弹，否则全球范围内的能源安全将受到威胁。

伍德麦肯兹最近给这些高管带来了一些好消息：新的油气勘探投资正在复苏，未来四年平均每年将达到220亿美元，尽管其中数十亿美元将被用于摆脱碳氢化合物的转型。

与此同时，这种转变与石油和天然气公司新油气勘探支出的反弹之间存在联系。这种联系与转型给勘探和生产公司带来的新要求有关——例如，专注于低排放资产的压力，以及更严格的环境要求，这将使一些油气发现变得不可行。

伍德麦肯兹全球勘探研究主管朱莉·威尔逊表示：“尽管这种反弹可能会让一些人感到意外，但必须放在大背景下看待。2006年至2014年期间，油气勘探经历了繁荣，按2023年计算的油气勘探支出达到了790亿美元的峰值。”

“但在之前的6年里，每年油气勘探平均支出为270亿美元。虽然支出会增加，但不会回到接近过去高点的水平，而且可能会有一个增加上限。”

换句话说，由于油气勘探支出的复苏是在能源转型的双重压力下发生的，它将受到转型的限制。然而，尽管存在诸多限制，油气勘探支出仍在进行，这很能说明问题。因为自今年年初以来，要求终结碳氢化合物行业的呼声越来越高。

事实上，一个名为“国际石油变革”的活动组织最近抨击《通胀削减法案》是“美国历史上对化石燃料行业最大的施舍之一”。 

根据该活动组织所说，这项法案为石油和天然气行业提供了数百亿美元的赠品，规定扩大化石燃料租赁，并鼓励危险和未经证实的技术，以保持化石燃料行业的业务，如碳捕获和储存(CCS)，氢气和直接空气捕获(DAC)，这项法案将无法实现我们需要的一个宜居的未来。

事实上，《通胀削减法案》已经为碳捕获和储存技术拨款。它也有更多的钱花在风能、太阳能、电动汽车和充电基础设施上，欧盟也是如此。尽管最近出现了各种挑战，但西方肯定会全力投入能源转型。

如果在这种背景下投资石油和天然气勘探，那么一定有一个很好的原因，而这个原因不是石油和天然气公司去年历史最高的利润。利润只是原因的一部分，但不是全部，全部就是能源安全。

去年将欧洲天然气价格推至天价的天然气短缺，提醒了许多支持转型的人，转型并不能真正增强能源安全。在某种程度上，这是可能的，但这需要时间，需要更多的资金，还需要解决风能、太阳能和电动汽车的几个主要问题。然而，目前唯一能保证能源安全的能源来源是碳氢化合物。

并不是只有倡导转型的人意识到了这一现实。石油和天然气行业本身可能已经暂时忘记了这一点，并在去年敲响了警钟。所以现在，勘探支出在上升。油气行业正在将其与实现转型目标联系起来。

“我们需要继续投资石油和天然气，以确保能源转型以一种平衡的方式进行，同时提供负担得起的、越来越低碳的能源。壳牌公司天然气和上游综合总监Zoe Yujnovich在7月份曾表示：“我们将通过将投资重点放在最有利可图、最具碳竞争力的项目上，为这一平衡转型做出助力。”

转型设备的原材料是用碳氢化合物燃料驱动的机器生产的。设备本身是使用碳氢化合物的能源生产的——比如太阳能电池板和煤电炉——设备中也有碳氢化合物成分——比如风力涡轮机叶片和环氧树脂。

换句话说，新的石油和天然气勘探支出正在反弹，因为首先，需求趋势已经非常清楚地表明，世界对碳氢化合物的渴求不是在下降，而是在上升；其次，因为从碳氢化合物的能源转型仍然依赖碳氢化合物。

随着投资者纷纷涌向政府转型努力带来的新机会，这一领域投资支出肯定会有一个上限。然而，这个上限到底有多高，还有待观察。最重要的是，能源安全将永远压倒一切。

李峻 译自 油价网

原文如下：

Net-Zero Goals Won’t Slow Down Oil Exploration

·     WoodMac: investment in new oil and gas exploration is recovering and is set to average $22 billion annually over the next four years.

·     The recovery in exploration spending is taking place amid a double-down on the transition.

·     The expected rise in hydrocarbons demand and the relative importance of energy security are two reasons why oil companies are spending more on exploration.

Underinvestment in oil and gas exploration has been a scarecrow for energy security for several years now.

Various industry executives, have warned that unless investment in new exploration rebounds, energy security will be compromised on a global scale.

Wood Mackenzie recently had some good news for these executives: investment in new oil and gas exploration is recovering and is set to average $22 billion annually over the next four years. Despite the billions being channeled into the transition away from hydrocarbons.

At the same time, there is a connection between the transition and the rebound in new exploration spending in oil and gas. That connection has to do with the new demands that the transition has created for exploration and production companies – pressure to focus on assets with a low emissions profile, for instance, and stricter environmental requirements that would make some discoveries unviable.

“While this rebound might surprise some, it must be seen in context. Exploration went through a boom during 2006-2014 and spend peaked at US$79 billion (in 2023 terms),” Julie Wilson, Wood Mac’s director of global exploration research, said.

“But in the prior six years, the average was US$27 billion per year in 2023 terms. While spending will increase, it won’t return to anywhere close to past highs and there will likely be a ceiling on the increase.”

In other words, as the recovery in spending is taking place amid a double-down on the transition, it will be constrained by that transition. Yet it is taking place despite the constraints, which is quite telling. Because the calls to end the hydrocarbons industry have only been growing louder since the start of the year.

Indeed, one campaign group dubbed Oil Change International slammed the Inflation Reduction Act as being “one of the biggest handouts to the fossil fuel industry in US history.

According to that group, “With tens of billions dollars in giveaways for the oil and gas industry, provisions expanding fossil fuel leasing, and incentives for dangerous and unproven technologies designed to keep the fossil fuel industry in business like Carbon Capture and Storage (CCS), hydrogen, and Direct Air Capture (DAC), this law will not accomplish what we need to have a livable future.”

Indeed, the IRA has money allocated for carbon capture and storage tech. It also has a lot more money to be spent on wind, solar, EVs, and charging infrastructure, and so does the EU. The West is definitely going all in on the energy transition, despite all the challenges that have emerged recently.

If spending oil new oil and gas exploration is taking place in this context, then there must be a very good reason for it, and that reason is not the record profits oil and gas companies made last year. They are part of the reason but not the whole of it. The whole of it is energy security.

The gas squeeze that pushed European prices sky-high last year reminded a lot of people embracing the transition that it does not really enhance energy security. It could, at some point, but that would take time, a lot more money and solving several major problems with wind, solar, and EVs. Right now, however, the only sources of energy that do provide energy security are the hydrocarbon sort.

The transition advocates were not the only ones reminded of that fact of life. The oil and gas industry itself may have temporarily forgotten it and got a wake up call last year. So now, spending is on the rise. And the industry is tying it to achieving transition goals. 

“Continued investments in oil and gas will be needed to make sure that the energy transition happens in a balanced way with a secure supply of affordable and increasingly lower-carbon energy. We will contribute to this balanced transition by focusing our investments on the most profitable and carbon-competitive projects,” Shell’s Integrated Gas and Upstream Director, Zoe Yujnovich, said last month.

The raw materials for the transition equipment are produced using machines that run on hydrocarbon fuels. The equipment itself is produced using energy from hydrocarbons—think solar panels, and coal powered furnaces—and there are hydrocarbon ingredients in that equipment—think wind turbine blades and epoxy resins.

In other words, spending on new oil and gas exploration is rebounding because, first, demand trends have demonstrated quite clearly that the world’s thirst for hydrocarbons is not falling but rising and, second, because the energy transition away from hydrocarbons depends on them. 

There could certainly be a ceiling somewhere in there as investors flock to new opportunities arising from governments’ transition efforts. Yet just how high this ceiling will be remains to be seen. Ultimately, energy security would always trump everything else, however noble it might be.